The grey system theory, which has been extensively used in many areas, is appropriate for forecasting. It is necessary to put forward new models or algorithms to improve its performance, especially for forecast accuracy. In the forecast process of grey model, the size of data sample and the number of variables can affect forecast accuracy. In this paper, we first put forward a new method to cho...

A method for probabilistic forecast of agricultural yield depending on meteorological variability, i.e. forecast of agrometeorological resources, is discussed. Forecast is based on the category of meteorologically possible yield (MPY)–the maximum possible yield for a given variety in the existing meteorological conditions. The forecasting process is realized by a potato production process model...

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind...

We propose a hybrid forecast based on extended discrete grey Markov and variable dimension Kalman model and show that our hybrid model can improve much more the performance of forecast than traditional grey Markov and Kalman models. Our simulation results are given to demonstrate that our hybrid forecast method combined with degree of grey incidence are better than grey Markov and ARFIMA model ...

The method of model fitting, or adjoint method, is applied to a barotropic hurricane track forecast model described by DeMaria and Jones using a large sample of forecast cases. The sample includes all Atlantic tropical cyclones that reached hurricane intensity during the 1989–93 hurricane seasons (141 72-h forecasts of 17 storms). The cases considered by DeMaria and Jones are a subset of the pr...

JMA operates NWP models to meet various kinds of requirements on weather forecasting. The suite of the NWP models covers a wide temporal range of forecast periods from a few hours to two seasons providing a seamless sequence of products for the public. The Global Spectral Model (GSM) produces 84-hour forecast four times a day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) to support the official short-range forecasting ...

Forecasting the water level at Venice lagoon has been object of extensive studies in the past. For example, the numerical model (MIKE 21) based on deterministic equations has been setup for the purposes of the operational water level forecast. The model includes all the fundamental modelling components necessary for use in operational mode and model has been tested against a number of historica...