The foreign exchange market (FX market) accounts for 40% of the total volume of the world’s e-commerce by its own. Based on statistics, sometimes up to 90 per cent of the traders lose their total capital in this market just within six months to one year and leave this market. The probability of loss in the FX market can be estimated by probability theory. The present paper intends to demonst...

For foreign currency exchange rates, multi-affine analysis can put quantitatively into evidence the differences between correlated (daily closing market) values and random walks in time dependent data. The H(q) spectrum is presented and discussed here for the USD/DEM and JPY/USD exchange rates. The time-evolution of these ratios is found to be multi-affine. The h(γ)-curve describing the hierarc...

This paper uses Reuters high-frequency exchange rate data to investigate the contributions to the price discovery process by individual banks in the foreign exchange market. We propose multivariate time series models in calendar time as well as in tick time to study the dynamic relations between the quotes of individual banks. We investigate the hypothesis that German banks are price leaders in...