This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large models that can be cast in a linear state space representation. We build large vector autoregressions (VAR...

For the past few years, regionalism has been progressing in East Asia with the likes of China, Japan, and Korea (CJK) as the most prominent actors. Unfortunately, with the absence of trade arrangement amongst the CJK, the present regional trade scheme is not sufficient to reach sustainability. This paper uncovers the inefficient scheme through Engle-Granger Cointegration and Error Correction Me...

This paper develops a new framework and statistical tools to analyze stock returns using high frequency data. We consider a continuous-time multi-factor model via a continuous-time multivariate regression incorporating realistic empirical features, such as persistent stochastic volatilities with leverage effects. We find that conventional regression approach often leads to misleading and incons...

The recent global crisis, as a big crash ( Baldwin and Simon , 2009), has reduced foreign demand growth affecting total countries’ exports. Given the importance of foreign trade to nations and the reality that recent crisis has affected international trade we study the effects of the global financial crisis on trade relations between countries by using Ma and Cheng (2003) approach and by appl...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper proposes a new way of computing a coincident indic...

In this paper we consider estimation and inference of common breaks in panel data models via adaptive group fused lasso. We consider two approaches — penalized least squares (PLS) for firstdifferenced models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) for first-differenced models with endogeneity. We show that with probability tending to one both methods can correctly determine the ...

This paper studies estimation of a panel data model with latent structures where individuals can be classified into different groups where slope parameters are homogeneous within the same group but heterogeneous across groups. To identify the unknown group structure of vector parameters, we design an algorithm called Panel-CARDS which is a systematic extension of the CARDS procedure proposed by...

tourism industry has been the fastest and the most income-generating industry in the first decade of the third millennium. it has been for many countries including some of oic member countries a source of foreign exchange and contributed into their development. in this paper, we try to test empirically whether tourism expansion has had any significant effect on economic growth of oic member cou...

This paper examines the association between government ownership and bank stability over 1997-2010 across a sample of 103 countries. With a continuous variable to proxy for government ownership, our system GMM estimates indicate that the association between government ownership and bank stability depends on a country’s economic development and regulatory quality. In developed, high income count...

today, the focus of coherent regional and transregional markets is an increasing tendency for the exchange of goods and services that are based on modern scientific technology. thus, the use and application of knowledge and standards harmonization of domestic products with favorable global production should be considered as a priority and requirements among the economic policies of export devel...