The objectives of this study were to estimate from test day records the genetic and environmental (co)variance components, correlations, and breeding values to increase genetic gain in milk yield of Lucerna and US Holstein cattle. The effects of repeated observations (within cow) were explained by first-order autoregressive processes within and across lactations using an animal model. Estimates...

The assumption of Gaussian innovation terms in linear time series analysis is quite restrictive. Under this assumption, both the marginal and conditional distributions of the time series are Gaussian. However, in real life many time series display features which seem to violate the Gaussian assumption. For example, Chan and Tong (1998) show that the Canadian lynx data have a bimodal marginal di...

Although a myriad of methods have been advanced to tackle spatial and temporal structures in data separately, it becomes difficult to analyze these data using classical linear regression models when spatial-temporal structures coexist, especially when the data size is relatively large. In this article, we demonstrate a simple to implement method to handle spatial-temporal structures simultaneou...

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final...

Regressor selection can be viewed as the rst step in the system identi cation process. The bene ts of nding good regressors before estimating complex models are especially clear for nonlinear systems, where the class of possible models is huge. In this article, a structured way of using the tool Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is presented and used for NARX model (nonlinear autoregressive model wi...

We introduce the new time series analysis features of scikits.statsmodels. This includes descriptive statistics, statistical tests and several linear model classes, autoregressive, AR, autoregressive moving-average, ARMA, and vector autoregressive models VAR.

• Traditional approaches, including Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, autoregressive and moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX) model, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, exponential smoothing models [including Holt–Winters model (HW) and seasonal Holt and Winters’ linear exponential smoothing (SHW)], state space/Kalman fi...

We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Realized volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components, and the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is applied with implied volatility as an additional forecasting variabl...