This paper examines the dynamic effects of government outlays on economic growth and the unemployment rate. Using vector autoregression and data from twenty OECD countries over three recent decades, we found: (1) positive shocks to government outlays slow down economic growth and raise the unemployment rate; (2) different types of government outlays have different effects on growth and unemploy...

abstract the aim of this study is of the effect of structural changes in higher education on changes of output in sistan and baluchestan province using structural decomposition analysis (sda). the input-output tables of this region for the period 2006-2011 have been employed as the database of the model. the structural changes were decomposed into two factors: changes in share of specific secto...

Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check identification requires spec...

Article history: Received 25 October 2008 Received in revised form 19 July 2009 Accepted 5 January 2010 Available online 18 January 2010 In the finance literature, statistical inferences for large-scale testing problems usually suffer from data snooping bias. In this paper we extend the “superior predictive ability” (SPA) test of Hansen (2005, JBES) to a stepwise SPA test that can identify pred...

The analysis of macroeconomic variables for current situation in Iran indicates a Conundrum. Solving this puzzle is vital for Central Bank of Iran in order to choose an appropriate approach for monetary policy and banking supervision. Increase in liquidity growth rate, significant decrease of inflation rate and interest rate rigidity are the three sides of this puzzle. This study designs an inn...

It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another prevalent belief is that Canada forms an optimal currency area (OCA). The authors uncover three seri...

We propose an Economic Stability Index (ESI) incorporating house prices and stock prices as components of the measure of the inflation rate in order to allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to achieve both price and macroeconomic stability. We use an optimisation approach to estimate target weights for different sectoral prices in the broader price index, which depend on sectoral parameters oth...

There are three leading explanations for the recent jobless recoveries: increasing importance of permanent shocks; long expansions creating greater need for restructuring; and structural changes that cause a shift towards adjusting labor inputs more at the intensive margin (hours) rather than the extensive margin (employment). This paper considers these competing explanations using a correlated...

The natural rate is the equilibrium rate under flexible prices, and the gap is the difference between the actual and natural rates. Since prices adjust eventually, the Beveridge–Nelson (B–N) decomposition gives the statistical counterparts of the two notions. Measuring cycles in the gap is of interest from the new neoclassical synthesis perspective. The Bayesian multivariate B–N decomposition g...

 Beijing’s industrial structure is service-oriented with a high degree of economic openness, and GDP has maintained rapid growth. This paper analyzes the international financial crisis and the impact of China’s anti-crisis policies on Beijing’s economic development as well as its transmission mechanism. Impact Index (excluding seasonal factors) and ARMA Model are employed in the empirical...