Recent research in both the social and natural sciences has been devoted to increasing our ability to predict disasters, prepare for them and mitigate their costs. Curiously, we appear to know very little about the fiscal consequences of disasters. The likely fiscal impact of a natural disaster has not been examined before in any comparable or comparative framework. We estimate and quantify the...

Recent! research! in!both! the! social! and!natural! sciences!has!been!devoted! to! increasing!our! ability!to!predict!disasters,!prepare!for!them!and!mitigate!their!costs.!Curiously,!we!appear!to! know!very!little!about!the!fiscal!consequences!of!disasters.!The!likely!fiscal!impact!of!a!natural! disaster! has! not! been! examined! before! in! any! comparable! or! comparative! framework.! We! e...

Fiscal stance may respond pro-cyclically to the business cycle... This chapter describes the extent to which fiscal policy has been a stabilising or destabilising influence on economic activity in the OECD area over the last two decades, and investigates some of the institutional factors which may have led to the observed outcome. The concerns motivating the chapter relate to the fact that disc...

This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an application, the effects of changes in fiscal policy rules in the US are investigated. I find that discr...

This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an application, the effects of changes in fiscal policy rules in the US are investigated. I find that discr...

We study the monetary instrument problem in a model of optimal discretionary fiscal and monetary policy. The policy problem is cast as a dynamic game between the central bank, the fiscal authority, and the private sector. We show that, as long as there is a conflict of interest between the two policy-makers, the central bank’s monetary instrument choice critically affects the Markov-perfect Nas...

This work explores the relationship between price of crude oil and its production through an empirical study on regions Organization Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) non-Organization (non-OPEC). The has recently been fluctuating greatly that it cannot be predicted; this fluctuation causes changes in prices raw materials for everyday life, thus affecting economy worldwide. To better understa...

The literature testing for long-run impacts of fiscal policy on growth at the macro level has generally ignored short-run dynamics and treated all counties’ fiscal-growth dynamics identically. This paper examines how robust previous ‘long-run’ results for OECD countries are to new empirical methods that model short-run dynamics and allow fiscal-growth responses to be heterogeneous both across c...