According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect an exogenous increase in the terms of trade faced by a small open economy leads to an improvement in that country’s trade balance. In this paper structural vector autoregression techniques are used to investigate whether there is any systematic pattern in the responses of the trade balance to terms of trade shocks for a large number of sma...

This paper suggests an identified VAR model that identifies monetary policy actions for the G-7 countries without encountering empirical puzzles such as the price puzzle and the liquidity puzzle. Using the model, the effects of monetary policy shocks are examined for the postwar period. Monetary policy shocks have significant effects on output in the short run. However, the contribution of mone...

We develop a global vector autoregressive model GVAR to analyze macroeconomic shock transmission among the East African Community countries. The results suggest that there is a signi…cant growth and in‡ation shock transmissions from Kenya to the rest of the member countries while the transmission in the opposite direction is insigni…cant. The macroeconomic shocks are re‡ected more on prices tha...

This paper is an attempt to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on output in Indonesia using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology for the period 1983:1 – 2010:1. We use contemporaneous restriction and follow Blanchard and Perotti (1999) technique to identify structural fiscal policy shocks in Indonesia. The estimation results show that the government spending shocks are found...

This study explores the dynamic effects of patent policy on innovation and income inequality in a Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous market structure heterogeneous households. We find that strengthening protection has positive effect economic or an inverted-U when number differentiated products is fixed short run. However, adjusts endogenously, become negative long also calibrate to US ...

This paper aims to investigate the role of each aggregate spending component in the monetary policy transmission in Indonesia. It assesses the relative strength of the role of each spending component in the monetary policy transmission. In so doing, this study employs the contribution analysis, which is calculated based on the cumulative impulse response of each component of GDP to a monetary p...

In this article, we study the impact of demographic changes on inequality between capital and labor incomes. More precisely, analyze exogenous in both rate natural increase net migration income as a share total income. We estimate structural vector autoregression (VAR) model panel 18 OECD countries with annual data for 1985–2018. find that response to an change is significantly negative few yea...

This paper develops an empirical macroeconomic framework to analyze the relationship between major political disruptions and business cycles of a country. We combine a new dataset of political revolutions (mass domestic political campaigns to remove dictators and juntas) across the world since 1960, with coup data and traditional macro data (of output, investment, trade, inflation and exchange ...

Recessions are associated with increases in uncertainty. This paper shows that a simple model of creative destruction, in which new productive businesses push out old obsolete ones, produces increases in measured uncertainty during recessionary periods even without time-variation in second moments of exogenous shocks. Moreover, the suggested channel is also borne out by the data. Using an estab...

1 Chris Laing, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] 2 Alan Robinson, Southampton Institute, Technology Faculty, Southampton, SO14 0YN, UK, [email protected] Abstract  Previously it has been proposed that explanations of non-traditional withdrawal might be defined by the underlying characteristics of the teaching and learn...