Abstract The prediction of river runoff is crucial for flood forecasting, agricultural irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. A coupled model based on the Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) proposed to address non-linear seasonal features data. GSA has a significant local optimisation capability, while SARIMA allows real-time ...

This is an early version of a set of notes for the course on Time Series Analysis offered at Lund University. Any and all comments and suggestions are most welcome and appreciated. Glossary and Abbreviations 1-D, 2-D, etc. One-dimensional, two-dimensional, etc. ACF Auto-covariance function AR Autoregressive ARIMA Integrated ARMA ARMA Autoregressive moving average ARMAX ARMA with exogenous input...

BACKGROUND Predicting the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) plays an important role in planning health control strategies for the future, developing intervention programs and allocating resources. OBJECTIVES The present longitudinal study estimated the incidence of tuberculosis in 2014 using Box-Jenkins methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS Monthly data of tuberculosis cases recorded in the surveilla...

Background. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common respiratory condition characterized by progressive dyspnea and acute exacerbations which may result in emergency department (ED) presentations. This study examines monthly rates of presentations to EDs in one Canadian province. Methods. Presentations for COPD made by individuals aged ≥55 years during April 1999 to March 2011 w...

background: determining the temporal variation and forecasting the incidence of smear positive tuberculosis (tb) can play an important role in promoting the tb control program. its results may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning and allocating resources. the present study forecasts the incidence of smear positive tb in iran. methods: this a longitudinal study using monthly tuberc...