We show that extrinsic or non-fundamental uncertainty influences markets in a controlled environment. This work provides the first direct evidence of sunspot equilibria. These equilibria require a common understanding of the semantics of the sunspot variable, and they appear to be sensitive to the flow of information. Extrinsic uncertainty matters when information flows slowly, as in a call mar...

We study possible interrelations between the 300 year record of the yearly sunspot numbers and the solar inertial motion (SIM) using the recently developed technique of synchronization analysis. Phase synchronization of the sunspot cycle and the SIM is found and statistically confirmed in three epochs (1734–1790, 1855–1875 and 1907–1960) of the whole period 1700–2000. These results give quantit...

In economies with indivisible commodities, consumers tend to prefer lotteries in commodities. A potential mechanism for satisying these preferences is unrestricted purchasing and selling of lotteries in decentralized markets, as suggested in Prescott and Townsend [-Int. Econ. Rev. 25, 1-20]. However, this paper shows in several examples that such lottery equilibria do not always exist for econo...

We examine the stability of equilibrium in sunspot-driven real business cycle (RBC) models under adaptive learning. We show that the general reduced form of this class of models can admit rational expectations equilibria that are both indeterminate and stable under adaptive learning. Indeterminacy of equilibrium allows for the possibility that non-fundamental “sunspot” variable realizations can...

Solar magnetism displays a host of variational timescales of which the enigmatic 11-year sunspot cycle is most prominent. Recent work has demonstrated that the sunspot cycle can be explained in terms of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction between the overlapping activity bands of the 22-year magnetic polarity cycle. Those activity bands appear to be driven by the rotation of the Sun's ...

A data mining system designed to associate previous solar flares with sunspot groups using databases from Nobeyama Radioheliograph and the National Geophysical Data Center, and associated data used for training verification, and comparison of several Neural Networks topologies which can be used with an automated solar activity prediction system in the future. The data mining system manages to a...

The dates of presentation of 191 cases of acute closed-angle glaucoma which presented at the Birmingham and Midland Eye Hospital between 1971 and 1974 were analysed and the seasonal incidence of acute glaucoma confirmed (P less than 0-001). These data were compared with meteorological data for air temperature, rainfall, hours of sunshine, atmospheric pressure, cloud amount, terrestrial magnetic...

We investigate the size distribution of the maximum areas and the instantaneous distribution of areas of sunspot groups using the Greenwich sunspot group record spanning the interval 1874-1976. Both distributions are found to be well described by log-normal functions. Using a simple model we can transform the maximum area distribution into the instantaneous area distribution if the sunspot area...

Does consideration of sunspot equilibria in the cash-in-advance model help the model match key features in the US macroeconomic data? One can use the cash-in-advance model to generate predictions of macro time series via an equilibrium of the model. However, when restricted to minimum state variable stationary rational expectations equilibria, the model’s predictions do not match the data well....

This paper proves that, in a general financial model with incomplete markets, the multiplicity of certainty equilibria is not necessary for the existence of sunspot effects. These effects are present, by definition, when real economic variables differ across realizations of extrinsic uncertainty. In a financial model of incomplete markets with identical payouts across realizations of extrinsic ...