The purpose of this report is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. To achieve this purpose, the report comprehensively reviews survey, theoretical and empirical studies regarding technical trading strategies. We begin by overviewing survey studies that have directly investigated market participants’ experience and views on technical analysis. The survey literature ...

This paper uses the visibility and invisibility algorithms to build the peak and trough indicators, providing a way to recognize the convexity, concavity and regime change of the CSI 300 Index from the April 8, 2005 to June 30, 2016. The study found that the automated trading rules discovered by the gradient boosted classification trees models derived from the peak indicator outperform that fro...

This paper studies the problem of how changes in the design of the genetic algorithm (GA) have an effect on the results obtained in real-life applications. In this study, focused on the application of a GA to the tuning of technical trading rules in the context of financial markets, our tentative thesis is that the GA is robust with respect to design changes. The optimization of technical tradi...

Article history: Received 25 October 2008 Received in revised form 19 July 2009 Accepted 5 January 2010 Available online 18 January 2010 In the finance literature, statistical inferences for large-scale testing problems usually suffer from data snooping bias. In this paper we extend the “superior predictive ability” (SPA) test of Hansen (2005, JBES) to a stepwise SPA test that can identify pred...

0378-4266/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. A http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.09.012 ⇑ Corresponding author at: Faculty of Business Ad versity, 955 Oliver Road, Thunder Bay, ON, Canada P7 fax: +1 807 343 8443. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (N. (R. Gençay). From the market microstructure perspective, technical analysis can be profitable when informed traders make systemat...

This paper proposes a framework of robust technical trading with fuzzy knowledge-based systems (KBSs). Particularly, our framework consists of two modules, i.e., (i) a module for preparing candidate investment proposals and (ii) a module for their evaluation to construct a well-performed portfolio. Moreover, our framework effectively utilizes fuzzy KBSs for representation of human expert knowle...

This paper aims to apply the neuro-fuzzy technique to refine the Stochastics technical trading rules to forecast the Asian stock market. Essentially in this hybrid technique, fuzzy logic plays the role to formulate the relationship among the Stochastics indicators and stock price changes by using knowledge base. Neural networking is used to tune the formulated knowledge base based on historical...

This paper tests whether fitted linear models can replicate results from moment tests inspired by moving average technical trading rules for weekly foreign exchange series. Estimation is performed using standard OLS and maximum likelihood methods, along with a simulated method of moments technique which incorporates the trading rule moments into the estimation procedure. Results show that linea...