Adverse selection and moral hazard are commonly expected to cause market failures in natural disaster insurance markets. However, such problems may not arise if individuals mainly buy insurance based on risk preferences. Advantageous selection can occur if individuals with insurance are highly risk averse and seek to reduce risk. We offer a comprehensive empirical study of risk selection in nat...

Institute of Computational Modeling SB RAS, Academgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, 660036 e-mail: [email protected], phone +7 3912 495382 Abstract Risk measures are widely used in insurance pricing, portfolio selection, and in decision-making in general. Two prevalent classes of risk measures are expected utility (a dollar transform), and distorted probability (a probability transform). Both appro...

The CORAL approach is a model-based method to security testing employing risk assessment to help security testers select and design test cases based on the available risk picture. In this paper we present experiences from using CORAL in an industrial case. The results indicate that CORAL supports security testers in producing risk models that are valid and threat scenarios that are directly tes...

The problem of selecting the best k-element subset from a universe is involved in many applications. While previous studies assumed a noise-free environment or a noisy monotone submodular objective function, this paper considers a more realistic and general situation where the evaluation of a subset is a noisy monotone function (not necessarily submodular), with both multiplicative and additive...

BACKGROUND older people are at an increased risk of adverse outcomes following attendance at acute hospitals. Screening tools may help identify those most at risk. The objective of this study was to compare the predictive properties of five frailty-rating scales. METHOD this was a secondary analysis of a cohort study involving participants aged 70 years and above attending two acute medical u...

BACKGROUND Genomewide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with breast cancer. The extent to which these variants add to existing risk-assessment models is unknown. METHODS We used information on traditional risk factors and 10 common genetic variants associated with breast cancer in 5590 case subjects and 5998 control subjects, 50 to 79 years of age, from ...

Beta as a measure of risk has been under fire for many years. Although practitioners still widely use the CAPM to estimate the cost of equity of companies, they are aware of its problems and are looking for alternatives. A possible alternative is to estimate the cost of equity based on the semideviation. a well-known and intuitively plausible measure of downside risk. Complementing evidence rep...

Abstract: Model selection is often performed by empirical risk minimization. The quality of selection in a given situation can be assessed by risk bounds, which require assumptions both on the margin and the tails of the losses used. Starting with examples from the 3 basic estimation problems, regression, classification and density estimation, we formulate risk bounds for empirical risk minimiz...