This paper provides an empirical exploration of the interaction between fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rates, and external balances as well as their impacts on real economic growth and inflation for the BRICS countries. A panel VAR model is employed to assess the dynamic relationships. Our results generally confirm the significant impacts of a monetary shock on real economic activity ...

This paper presents empirical evidence on the behaviour of interbank lending in Germany after a monetary policy impulse. Our VAR analysis shows that following a monetary contraction, the banking system as a whole attracts additional funds from foreign banks. Whereas small cooperative and savings banks do not seem to directly access the interbank market themselves, they do so indirectly through ...

This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The spectral risk measures are conditioned on the coefficient of absolute risk aversion, and the latter two are conditioned...

Available online 10 June 2014 This paper analyzes the volatility linkage across the U.S., European, German, Japanese, and Swiss equity markets from 1999 to 2009. Both the unconditional and conditional correlations exhibit large fluctuations during the sample period. The results from the VAR analysis show an asymmetric two-way relation between the VIX and other market volatility indices, in whic...

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theore...

This paper revisits two recent studies that estimate the dynamic response of real wages to aggregate demand shocks. Using identical empirical techniques—structural VARs with long-run identifying restrictions—and similar post-war data, [Gamber and Joutz 83 (1993) 1387] and [Spencer 36 (1998) 120] report contradictory findings. After careful examination, I conclude that the reason for this puzzli...

We propose a candidate solution to the imperfect exchange rate passthrough puzzle: habit persistence at the level of individual goods varieties. Deep habits generate a dynamic import demand function that leads to import price markup adjustments, independently of nominal pricing frictions. Augmenting a standard two-country model with deep habits, we obtain low exchange rate pass-through to impor...

We develop a two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model that links cross-country differences in net foreign asset and consumption dynamics to differences in discount factors and steady-state levels of productivity. We compare the results of the model to those of VARs for the G3 economies. We identify country-specific productivity shocks by assuming that productivity does not respond contemp...

When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is statedependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by studying Bayesian predictive distributions for output growth and inflation in the US between 1983 and 2012, ...

Article history: Received 1 July 2010 Received in revised form 6 March 2013 Accepted 6 March 2013 Available online 16 March 2013 We investigate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China over the past decades with emphasis on the post-Asian crisis period. A factor-augmented VAR method is used to study the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments in stabilizing the Chinese econom...