Weather forecasts can be evaluated in a variety of ways. Murphy (1993) defined three kinds of forecast “goodness”: consistency, quality, and value. Consistency refers to the relationship between the forecasts and the “true beliefs” of the forecaster, quality refers to the relationship between the forecasts and weather events, and value refers to the relationship between the forecasts and the be...

Daily values of forecast scores are evaluated for the students in a weather analysis and forecasting class (ATMS 452) offered by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Washington during the spring terms of 1997 through 2007. The objective of this study is to determine the rate at which senior-level undergraduate students develop proficiency at short-term (next-day) weather ...

This paper presents a detailed study of a convective weather event affecting the northeastern United States on 19 April 2002: its impacts on departure throughput, the response of traffic managers and an analysis of the potential effects of decision support on system performance. We compare actual departure throughput to what may have been achieved using the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAP...

Meteorological forecasts of incident solar radiation are valuable for solar resource owners and others. Most previously described forecast methods provide a single predicted value. However, a well-calibrated forecast probability distribution is more useful in that it could be used to make optimum decisions under any decision rule. We demonstrate methods of constructing and evaluating probabilis...

The Hydrologic Research Laboratory of the National Weather Service Office of Hydrology is developing its next generation of software for the conduct of the National Weather Service Hydrologic Services Program. The Integrated Hydrologic Forecast System (IHFS) project is currently focused on developing and prototyping software and data architecture components of the system. The prototype involves...

Over the past 40 years there have been significant improvements in weather forecasting. These improvements are primarily due to (1) improved model physics and increased numerical grid resolution made possible by ever-increasing computational power, and (2) improved model initialization made possible by the use of satellite-derived remotely sensed data. In spite of these improvements, however, w...

Through a collaborative partnership, principally among NCAR, NOAA, DoD, OU/CAPS, FAA, and universities, the U.S. modeling community is developing a next-generation mesoscale model, known as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The goals of the WRF project are to develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and data assimilation system and to accelerate research advances into operations. ...

Probabilistic weather forecasting consists of finding a joint probability distribution for future weather quantities or events. It is typically done by using a numerical weather prediction model, perturbing the inputs to the model in various ways, often depending on data assimilation, and running the model for each perturbed set of inputs. The result is then viewed as an ensemble of forecasts, ...

We develop an accurate model for the arrival traffic dynamics in terminal airspace that takes into account the weather forecast and runway configuration changes. The planning of runway configuration switching subject to weather constraints is formulated as a hybrid optimal control problem and a hierarchical approach is proposed to solve the problem. At the upper level of the hierarchy, a runway...

By increasing the penetration of renewable energies in district heating (DH), intermittency supply-side increases for service providers. Therefore, forecasting energy consumption buildings is needed order to hedge against power intermittency. This paper investigates application data-driven approaches forecast heat winter, using high-priority weather data. The residential are connected mixing lo...