Crowd-sourcing of information has become popular in the years since James Surowiecki published The Wisdom Crowds: why many are smarter than few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies, nations. In sports, crowd-sourced estimates players’ values abilities common, particularly football where salary is generally unavailable. analysis here first considers characteristics a g...

“Wisdom of crowds” refers to the phenomenon that average opinion a group individuals on given question can be very close true answer. It requires large diversity opinions, but collective error, difference between and value, has small. We consider stochastic dynamics where change their based opinions others (social influence α), some degree also stick initial (individual conviction β). then deri...

Wisdom of crowds refers to the phenomenon that the aggregate prediction or forecast of a group of individuals can be surprisingly more accurate than most individuals in the group, and sometimes – than any of the individuals comprising it. This article models the impact of social influence on the wisdom of crowds. We build a minimalistic representation of individuals as Brownian particles couple...

In some eyewitness situations, a group of individuals might have witnessed the same sequence of events. We consider the problem of aggregating eyewitness testimony, trying to reconstruct the true sequence of events as best as possible. We introduce a Bayesian model which incorporates individual differences in memory ability, as well as informative prior knowledge about event sequences, as measu...

The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding , popularly known as the “wisdom of crowds”, has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that social influence undermines collective wisdom by reducing the diversity of opinions within the crowd. Here, ...