OBJECTIVE To use a computer simulation model to project the potential impact in China of tobacco control measures on smoking, as recommended by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), being fully implemented. DESIGN Modelling study. SETTING China. POPULATION Males and females aged 15-74 years. INTERVENTION Incremental impact of more complete impleme...

[1] We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM) to investigate the effects of 2000–2050 global change in climate and emissions (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario) on the global tropospheric ozone budget and on the policy-relevant background (PRB) ozone in the United States. The...

[1] Numerical experiments are conducted to project arctic sea ice responses to varying levels of future anthropogenic warming and climate variability over 2010–2050. A summer ice‐free Arctic Ocean is likely by the mid‐2040s if arctic surface air temperature (SAT) increases 4°C by 2050 and climate variability is similar to the past relatively warm two decades. If such a SAT increase is reduced b...

We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG) to a study are...

National parks in the United States are protected areas wherein the natural habitat is to be conserved for future generations. Deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) transported from areas of human activity (fuel combustion, agriculture) may affect these natural habitats if it exceeds an ecosystem-dependent critical load (CL). We quantify and interpret the deposition to Class I US national pa...

The core objective of this paper is to investigate the perspectives of “renewable fuels” mainly from an energetic point-of-view in a dynamic framework until 2050 in comparison to fossil fuels. In addition, the impact on the economic prospects of an improvement of the energetic performance is analyzed. As renewable fuels, various categories of first and second generation biofuels as well as elec...

Global Hg emissions are presented for the year 2050 under a variety of assumptions about socioeconomic and technology development. We find it likely that Hg emissions will increase in the future. The range of 2050 global Hg emissions is projected to be 2390-4860 Mg, compared to 2006 levels of 2480 Mg, reflecting a change of -4% to +96%. The main driving force for increased emissions is the expa...

Soil nitrogen (N) budgets are used in a global, distributed flow-path model with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, representing denitrification and N2O emissions from soils, groundwater and riparian zones for the period 1900-2000 and scenarios for the period 2000-2050 based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Total agricultural and natural N inputs from N fertilizers, animal manure, biological N2 fix...

Tibet's forests, in contrast to China's other forests, are characterized by primary forests, high carbon (C) density and less anthropogenic disturbance, and they function as an important carbon pool in China. Using the biomass C density data from 413 forest inventory sites and a spatial forest age map, we developed an allometric equation for the forest biomass C density and forest age to assess...