Recently, a dramatic accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has been widely observed among developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to explore what macroeconomic impacts accumulated foreign reserves have in developing countries. In the first part, we analyze a simple open economy model where increased foreign reserves reduce costs of liquidity risk. Given the amount of foreign rese...

the economy's dependence on oil revenues and derivatives of these products make the country's economy heavily influenced by the volatility and instability of the pricing of these products. therefore, it seems necessary to develop non-oil exports. this paper examines the causality relation and the effect of foreign direct investment, economic openness and real exchange rate on non-oil ...

In this study a regime switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (c&f) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The empirical results suggest that this model does successfully explain daily DM/Dollar forward exchange rate dynamics from 1982 to 1998. Moreover, our findings turned out to be relative robust by estimating the model in subs...

This paper investigates whether there are three distinctive features in financial asset prices, that is, time-varying conditional volatility, jumps and the component factors of volatility. It adopts a component-GARCH-Jump, which can efficiently capture the three features simultaneously. Our results demonstrate that the three features exist in the Taiwan exchange rate. Besides time-varying condi...

The behavior of exchange rate in various exchange markets is not seemingly predictable, while there are different forecasting methods to do so. One of these methods is to use fractals to identify exchange rate behavior. This paper has made attempts to explore the properties of fractals in Iran’s exchange market in order to it can predict and analyze the trend of exchange rate. Accordingly, th...

This paper investigates the presence and characteristics of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency, obtained from Reuters on special order. We provide evidence on the frequency, size and duration of round-trip and one-way arbitrage opportu...

This paper investigates currency and financial crises in an optimizing general equilibrium model. It is shown that a rise in current and expected future budget deficits generates a real exchange rate appreciation and a decumulation of external assets, leading up to a currency crisis when foreign reserves approximate a critical level. Strong empirical support for our model is obtained by a probi...

The use of GARCH models with stable Paretian innovations in financial modeling has been recently suggested in the literature. This class of processes is attractive because it allows for conditional skewness and leptokurtosis of financial returns without ruling out normality. This contribution illustrates their usefulness in predicting the downside risk of financial assets in the context of mode...

This study examines the proposition that political business cycle theory is relevant to private foreign lenders to developing countries. We find that: credit rating agencies downgrade developing country ratings more often in election years, and do so by approximately one rating level; bond spreads are higher in the 60 days before an election compared to spreads in the 60 days after an election;...

Emerging markets exhibit (1) high expected returns to capital and (2) large exposures to movements in US returns, measured by the ‘beta’ of the returns to the asset on the returns to its US counterpart. We document these facts in detail for two asset classes stock market returns and the return to aggregate capital and we provide further evidence from a third class sovereign bonds. We use a seri...