Risk identification, impact assessment, and response planning constitute three building blocks of project risk management. Correspondingly, three types of interactions could be envisioned between risks, between impacts of several risks on a portfolio component, and between several responses. While the interdependency of risks is a well-recognized issue, the other two types of interactions remai...

This paper explores the topic of sensitivity analysis in Markov networks, by tackling questions similar to those arising in the context of Bayesian networks: the tuning of parameters to satisfy query constraints, and the bounding of query changes when perturbing network parameters. Even though the distribution induced by a Markov network corresponds to ratios of multi-linear functions, whereas ...

Modeling causal dependencies often demands cycles at a coarse-grained temporal scale. If Bayesian networks are to be used for modeling uncertainties, cycles are eliminated with dynamic Bayesian networks, spreading indirect dependencies over time and enforcing an infinitesimal resolution of time. Without a “causal design,” i.e., without anticipating indirect influences appropriately in time, we ...

This paper considers the computational power of constant size, dynamic Bayesian networks. Although discrete dynamic Bayesian networks are no more powerful than hidden Markov models, dynamic Bayesian networks with continuous random variables and discrete children of continuous parents are capable of performing Turing-complete computation. With modified versions of existing algorithms for belief ...

In this paper we introduce ZhuSuan, a python probabilistic programming library for Bayesian deep learning, which conjoins the complimentary advantages of Bayesian methods and deep learning. ZhuSuan is built upon Tensorflow. Unlike existing deep learning libraries, which are mainly designed for deterministic neural networks and supervised tasks, ZhuSuan is featured for its deep root into Bayesia...

Machine learning techniques are becoming increasingly useful in the study of complex biological phenomena. As more is understood about biological regulation, and additional experimental methods are developed, it is also becoming feasible to attempt to “reverse engineer” the pathways regulating biological systems using graphical models, with an emphasis on Bayesian networks. Herein we describe t...

In this paper, we propose a way to derive constraints for a Bayesian Network from structured arguments. Argumentation and Bayesian networks can both be considered decision support techniques, but are typically used by experts with different backgrounds. Bayesian network experts have the mathematical skills to understand and construct such networks, but lack expertise in the application domain; ...

This paper describes a structure of a standalone Intrusion Detection System (IDS) based on a large Bayesian network. To implement the IDS we develop the design methodology of large Bayesian networks. A small number of natural templates (idioms) are defined which make the design of Bayesian network easier. They are related to specific fragments of Bayesian networks representing the basic element...

Recent research into reconstructing biological networks has examined the use of dynamic Bayesian networks to model time-series data. While intuitively appealing, dynamic Bayesian network modeling makes assumptions about the properties of time-series data which may not hold for sparsely sampled datasets. This work argues that static Bayesian networks may be a more appropriate model for such data...

OF THE DISSERTATION Networks of Mixture Blocks for Non Parametric Bayesian Models with Applications By Ian Porteous Doctor of Philosophy in Information and Computer Science University of California, Irvine, 2010 Professor Max Welling, Chair This study brings together Bayesian networks, topic models, hierarchical Bayes modeling and nonparametric Bayesian methods to build a framework for efficien...