In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario ‘‘thread’’ through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing leve...

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices...

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued ph...

Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as ear...

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171 720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genot...

This paper discusses the implications of climate change for official transfers from rich countries (the North) to poor countries (the South). The concern is no longer just about poverty alleviation (i.e. income in the South), but also about global emissions and resilience to climate risk. Another implication is that traditional development transfers to increase income are complemented by new fi...

Adaptation to climate change must be ramped up urgently. We propose three avenues transform ambition action: improve tracking of actions and progress, upscale investment especially in critical areas, accelerate learning through practice. This Comment proposes

Climate adaptation has emerged as a mainstream risk management strategy for assisting in maintaining socio-ecological systems within the boundaries of a safe operating space. Yet, there are limits to the ability of systems to adapt. Here, we introduce the concept of an ―adaptation frontier‖, which is defined as a socio-ecological system’s transitional adaptive operating space between safe and u...

We investigate the effect of climate change on population growth in 18th and 19th century Iceland. We find that annual temperature changes help determine the population growth rate in preindustrial Iceland: a year 1◦C cooler than average drives down population growth rates by 0.57% in each of the next two years, for a total effect of 1.14%. We also find that 18th and 19th century Icelanders ada...