Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally m...

Precipitation and temperature drive many aspects of terrestrial ecosystem function. Climate change scenarios predict increasing precipitation variability and temperature, and long term experiments are required to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of interannual climate variation, increased growing season (intra-annual) rainfall variability, and warming. We present results from an experiment a...

Energetic, large-scale variability is observed in the atmosphere and ocean of the Atlantic Sector on interannual and decadal time scales. It is manifested as coherent fluctuations in temperature , rainfall, surface pressure and temperature reaching eastward to central Europe and northern Asia, southward to subtropical West Africa and westward to North and South America with a myriad of well doc...

Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, bot...

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and ident...

If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response. Feedback might also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. However, in addition to the intended respon...

A number of studies indicate an apparent slowdown in the overall rise in global average surface temperature between roughly 1998 and 2014. Most models did not predict such a slowdown—a fact that stimulated a lot of new research on variability of Earth’s climate system. At a September 2015 workshop, leading scientists gathered to discuss current understanding of climate variability on decadal ti...

Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures

[1] Three prominent quasi-global patterns of variability and change are observed using the Met Office’s sea surface temperature (SST) analysis and almost independent night marine air temperature analysis. The first is a global warming signal that is very highly correlated with global mean SST. The second is a decadal to multidecadal fluctuation with some geographical similarity to the El Niño–S...

clicking here. colleagues, clients, or customers by , you can order high-quality copies for your If you wish to distribute this article to others here. following the guidelines can be obtained by Permission to republish or repurpose articles or portions of articles ): October 24, 2011 www.sciencemag.org (this infomation is current as of The following resources related to this article are avai...