Movements in commodity prices can have large effects on output and inflation. From both an academic and policy perspective, changes in commodity prices relative to the prices of services and manufactured goods pose a number of important questions. First, what are the fundamental processes or shocks that drive these changes and how persistent are they likely to be? Second, through what transmiss...

I have no problems with the first point. Frankel provides considerable empirical evidence to support his conclusion. It also makes theoretical sense that commodity prices may be negatively correlated with real interest rates. Commodity prices can to a large extent be seen as asset prices. Asset prices are discounted present values of expected future returns. A rise in the real interest rate red...

I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, ana’ inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibriu...

We study market games with multiple posts per commodity. We provide some facts that characterize prices of commodities across posts and show the following results: (i) As the number of agents increases, the price variability across posts for a commodity becomes smaller and it becomes zero when the number of agents becomes infinite, irrespectively of the distribution of characteristics in the ec...

In this article, we develop a two-factor model of commodity prices that allows meanreversion in short-term prices and uncertainty in the equilibrium level to which prices revert. Although these two factors are not directly observable, they may be estimated from spot and futures prices. Intuitively, movements in prices for long-maturity futures contracts provide information about the equilibrium...

The paper investigates the implications of hedonic pricing of components, with an application to the dynamics of dairy product prices. A conceptual model of hedonic pricing is developed under a Leontief technology, showing how commodity prices reflect the underlying value of their components. Implications for the existence of cointegration relationships among commodity prices are derived. An ap...

Session title: Agriculture and Energy: new direct and indirect links can lead to unintended consequences The food commodity price boom of 2003-08 was the most notable in the last several decades. It substantially impacted global economic activity. It affected developing nations by impacting real output, the balance of payments, government budgetary positions and most importantly the well being ...

U.S. food prices rose 4% in 2007 and are expected to gain 3.5% to 4.5% in 2008. Higher farm commodity prices and energy costs are the leading factors behind higher food prices. Farm commodity prices have surged because (1) demand for corn for ethanol is competing with food and feed for acreage; (2) global food grain and oilseed supplies are low due to poor harvests; (3) the weak dollar has incr...

This paper demonstrates that “commodity currency” exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting future global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample. A critical element of our in-sample approach is to allow for structural breaks, endemic to empirical exchange rate models, by implementing the approach of Rossi (2005b). Aside from its practical implications, our forecastin...

assumption of exchange rate overshooting has significant position in international macroeconomic discussion. this phenomenon is one of the abnormal behaviors of exchange rate that happen in short run. dornbusch (1976) shows that because speed of equilibrium prices is slow relative to asset markets and commodity prices are sticky in the short run, however, over time, commodity prices will rise a...