The trade in commodity derivatives is widespread and trading volumes often surpass that of the underlying commodities. Commodity derivatives markets have seen a 60fold increase in the value of trade between 1998 and 2008. In 2008 the outstanding value of commodity derivatives equaled $13 trillion. This is twice the worldwide output of commodities, and about 21% of world GDP. Ideally derivatives...

With risk neutral traders and zero transaction costs, the expected value of the difference between the current forward price and the spot price of a commodity at the delivery date of the forward contract should be zero. Accounting for the transaction costs associated with trading in these two markets invalidates this result. We develop a statistical framework to test whether profitable trading ...

This paper presents a class of examples where a barter economy develops through agents' optimizing decisions into a monetary economy. A barter economy with m commodities is characterized by m(m-1)/2 commodity pair trading posts for active trade of each good for every other. Monetary equilibrium is characterized by active trade concentrated on m-1 posts, those trading in 'money' versus the m-1 o...