A country’s suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other countries. But international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations are endogenous. T...

This paper analyzes the relationship between money and inflation in a small open economy, where domestic and foreign currencies are perfect substitutes as means of payment. It is shown that, if the path of domestic money supply is such that individuals find it optimal to change the currency in which transactions are settled, there will be an adjustment period during which domestic inflation adj...

In the current age of big data, decision trees are one of the most commonly applied data mining methods. However, for reliable results they require up-to-date input data, which is not always given in reality. We present a two-phase approach based on probability theory for considering currency of stored data in decision trees. Our approach is efficient and thus suitable for big data applications...

This paper analyzes the relationship between currency price changes and their expectations. Currency price change expectations are derived with the help of different order flow measures, from the trading behavior of investors on OANDA FXTrade, which is an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market. We investigate whether forecasts of intra-day price changes on different sampling f...

This paper examines volatility spillovers between the stock and currency markets of ten Asian economies in the period 2003 to 2014. To carry out this analysis, a multivariate asymmetric GARCH model is used. In general, our results present evidence of bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets, independently of the individual country’s level of development. Additionally, our findin...

Using a competitive two-country two-commodity monetary model with optimizing agents in which persistent unemployment arises, this paper examines the effects of trade restrictions on consumption and employment in the two countries. When facing unemployment, a country tends to impose an import restriction so that domestic firms will increase production and raise employment. However, this policy i...

I study optimal capital flow management in a small open-economy DSGE model with two frictions: downward nominal wage rigidity and a pricedependent collateral constraint. Wage rigidity introduces an aggregate demand externality under fixed exchange rates and the collateral constraint introduces a pecuniary externality. I provide an analytical characterization of the optimal capital flow manageme...

We investigate how the elimination of intra-European exchange risk may affect international financial markets using a conditional version of the International CAPM. We estimate the EMU and non-EMU components of aggregate currency risk and document significant exposures to both. The premium for EMU risk is positive and associated with exposure to the French, Italian and Spanish currencies. The p...

Since financial derivatives are key instruments for risk taking as well as risk reduction, it is only straightforward to examine their role in currency crises. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the impact of currency futures trading on the underlying exchange rates. After a discussion of trading mechanisms and trader types, the linkage between futures trading activity and spot ma...

Available online 23 July 2010 We investigate the effectiveness of capital controls in insulating economies from currency crises, focusing in particular on both direct and indirect effects of capital controls and how these relationships may have changed over time in response to global financial liberalization and the greater mobility of international capital. We predict the likelihood of currenc...