This paper introduces the use of dynamic stochastic optimisation pension fund management. The design of such products involves econometric modelling, economic scenario generation, generic methods of solving optimization problems and modelling of required risk tolerances. In nearly all the historical backtests using data over roughly the past decade the system described (with transactions costs ...

The general-to-specific (GETS) approach to modelling is widely employed in the modelling of economic series, but less so in financial volatility modelling due to computational complexity when many explanatory variables are involved. This study proposes a simple way of avoiding this problem and undertakes an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the methodology applied to the modelling of weekly ...

The world in the model is a distillation of fifteen years of concentrated work by a major philosopher and historian of economics. Mary Morgan's topic is how economists use models. Her aim is " to offer both a history of the naturalization of modelling in economics and a naturalized philosophy of science for economics ". Recognising that " science is messy " , she presents " a series of historic...

This paper presents a multi-agent approach to design of adaptive distributed collaborative and peer help environments, which addresses a number of challenges: locating appropriate human and electronic resources depending on the help-request, motivating users to help each other, and is easily extendible "in-depth" and "in-breadth". We explore two novel approaches in user modelling: modelling of ...

Valuation of large projects on new communications technologies is a challenging task. Major investments are required to spread out technology and services, the characteristics of which are still largely unknown. A balanced view is needed on capabilities of the technologies, market demand, and relevant value network actors and their economies. In this dissertation, comprehensive techno-economic ...

The general-to-specific (GETS) approach to modelling is widely employed in the modelling of economic series, but less so in financial volatility modelling due to computational complexity when many explanatory variables are involved. This study proposes a simple way of avoiding this problem and undertakes an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the methodology applied to the modelling of weekly ...

Anthropogenic activities such as energy consumption, industrial activities and agriculture are major driving forces of emissions of air pollutants. Their future development has a strong influence on the level of future emissions and on the potential and costs for maintaining emissions at environmentally acceptable levels. Unfortunately, it is an ambitious task to accurately model the future dev...

BACKGROUND Modelling studies are used widely to help inform decisions about health care and policy and their use is increasing. However, in order for modelling to gain strength as a tool for health policy, it is critical that key model factors are transparent so that users of models can have a clear understanding of the model and its limitations.Reporting guidelines are evidence-based tools tha...

In this paper we review evolutionary economic modelling in relation to environmental policy. We discuss three areas in which evolutionary economic models have a particularly high added value for environmental policy-making: the double externality problem, technological transitions and consumer demand. We explore the possibilities to apply evolutionary economic models in environmental policy ass...

Much research in health care is devoted to health economical modelling. Even though the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is increasingly being applied in health care, its value to health economical modelling is still unrecognized. We explored the value of using AHP-derived results in a health economic model. We applied the AHP to provide input for a health economic evaluation of a new technolog...