In this work we consider a helical flow organization on small and large space scales in a forming tropical cyclone and offer a quantitative analysis for early stages in evolution of large-scale helical vortex based on diagnosis of a set of integral helical and energetic characteristics. Using the data from a near cloud-resolving numerical simulation by Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS...

Axisymmetric vortices with high level of axial vorticity are considered. Consistency conditions result in so-called compensating regime of the vortical flow. The power laws associated with this regime are applied to a series of vortices of different scales: bathtub vortex, tornadoes and tropical cyclones. Key–Words: vortical flows, bathtub vortex, tornado, tropical cyclone

As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of arbitrary grid boxes, and the spatial smoothing of the historical data is constructed optimally according to a clearly defined merit function.

A problem exists in that the classifications used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency ~FEMA! for weather-related disasters do not always allow analysts to clearly link declared disasters to their ultimate meteorological cause. This research focuses on those disasters related to flooding resulting from tropical cyclones. Neither FEMA nor the states that request federal disaster aid distin...

This study investigates tropical cyclones of the past two decades (1990–2010) and the connection, if any, between their size and their ability to subsequently undergo rapid intensification (RI). Three different parameters are chosen to define the size of a tropical cyclone: radius of maximum wind (RMW), the average 34-knot (kt; 1 kt5 0.51m s) radius (AR34), and the radius of the outermost close...

A review of the science on the relationship between climate change and tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. Topics include changes in aspects of tropical climate that are relevant to TC activity; observed trends and low-frequency variability of TC activity; paleoclimate proxy studies; theoretical and modeling studies; future projections; roadblocks to resolution of key issues; and recommendati...

We describe results from the fifth stage of a project to build a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks. The previous stages considered genesis and the shape of tracks. We now consider in more detail how to represent the lysis (death) of tropical cyclones. Improving the lysis model turns out to bring a significant improvement to the track model overall.

The relationship between tropical cyclogenesis and solar activity is addressed in this paper, analyzing the relationship between important parameters in the evolution of tropical cyclones as the CAPE, wind shear and relative vorticity, and the Dst geomagnetic index as a parameter of solar activity. The apparent relationship between all this phenomena has a different response depending on the ph...

In the past, many objective techniques have been evaluated for severe tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, but little has been done along this line in the Pacific. A computer program was developed at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, to verify 10 separate 24-hr. forecast techniques. During the course of the 1967 season, a total of 14 different techniques were tested on 27 tropical cyclones. All t...

Working with a large temporal dataset spanning several decades often represents a challenging task, especially when the record is heterogeneous and incomplete. The use of statistical laws could potentially overcome these problems. Here we apply Benford's Law (also called the "First-Digit Law") to the traveled distances of tropical cyclones since 1842. The record of tropical cyclones has been ex...