This paper attempts to compare the forecasting performance of the ARIMA model and hybrid ARMA-GARCH Models by using daily data of the Iran’s exchange rate against the U.S. Dollar (IRR/USD) for the period of 20 March 2014 to 20 June 2015. The period of 20 March 2014 to 19 April 2015 was used to build the model while remaining data were used to do out of sample forecasting and check the forecasti...

The inability to reconcile observed levels of foreign exchange rate volatility with predictions derived from rational expectations models represents one of the most persistent challenges in international finance. This paper shows that such excess volatility puzzles arise from informational assumptions by contrasting exchange rate equilibria under different expectational paradigms: rational expe...

This paper studies the impact of external factors on daily exchange rates and short-term interest rates in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland during the period August 1997 – May 2001. I find that neither exchange rates nor interest rates are influenced by short-term German interest rates. Nevertheless, I show that shocks to emerging-market risk premia had a significant impact on exchange ra...

The aim of this study is to examine the nexus between exchange rate volatility and foreign capital inflows in Nigeria. The results from the past empirical studies about this subject matter have been controversial, which has created a gap in the literature. The study extracted data from CBN Statistical Bulletin and UNCTAD investment report from 1990-2016. Consequently, the findings that emerged ...

This study investigates whether intraday returns contain important information for forecasting daily volatility. Whereas in the existing literature volatility models for daily returns are improved by including intraday information such as the daily high and low, volume, the number of trades, and intraday returns, here the volatility of intraday returns is explicitly modelled. Daily volatility f...

This paper develops a dynamic general-equilibrium (DGE) model of a small open economy to investigate alternative monetary rules, differing primarily in the degree to which they allow for exchange rate flexibility. A central argument of the paper is that the nature of the trade-off between fixed and floating exchange rates may be quite different in mature industrial economies than in emerging-ma...

In the empirical analysis of financial time series, multivariate GARCH models have been used in various forms. As it is typical for nonlinear models there is yet no unique framework available to uncover dynamic covariance relationships for vector return processes. We introduce a new concept of impulse response functions tracing the effects of independent shocks on volatility through time. The a...