[1] Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive framework for Bayesian revision has been recently developed and applied to operational flood ...

Flood is one of the most important natural disasters affect China greatly, especially for southeast cities. To help mitigate the loss brought by it, technologies such as simulation, visualization, decision support system, etc. could be utilized in the process of emergency management for city flood. Thus the Flood Simulation and Decision Support System (FSDSS) comes into being. It is an integrat...

The DLR-funded project “Integration of remote sensing data in operational water balance and flood forecasting systems” (InFerno) has been originated to establish an operational synergy of remote sensing and flood forecasting. Upon availability, InFerno intends to make excessive use of ENVISAT ASAR data, which will provide microwave imagery at a specifically appropriate spatial and temporal reso...

There are a number of factors that lead to nonlinearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard; this nonlinearity is a pertinent issue for applications that use a precipitation forecast as a proxy for imminent flood hazard. We assessed the degree of this nonlinearity for the first time using a recently developed global-scale hydrological model driven by the ERA-Interim/Land precipitat...

[1] Recognizing that the frequency distribution of annual maximum floods at a given location may change over time in response to interannual and longer climate fluctuations, we compare two approaches for the estimation of flood quantiles conditional on selected ‘‘climate indices’’ that carry the signal of structured low-frequency climate variation, and influence the atmospheric mechanisms that ...

[1] It is widely acknowledged that climate variability modifies the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events. Traditional hydrological frequency analysis methods do not account for year to year shifts in flood risk distributions that arise due to changes in exogenous factors that affect the causal structure of flood risk. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis to evaluate several factors ...

An approach to forecasting the potential for flash flood–producing storms is developed, using the notion of basic ingredients. Heavy precipitation is the result of sustained high rainfall rates. In turn, high rainfall rates involve the rapid ascent of air containing substantial water vapor and also depend on the precipitation efficiency. The duration of an event is associated with its speed of ...