A novel approach to climate forecasting on an interannual time scale is described. The approach is based on concepts and techniques from artificial intelligence and expert systems. The suitability of this approach to climate diagnostics and forecasting problems and its advantages compared with conventional forecasting techniques are discussed. The article highlights some practical aspects of th...

The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large-scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High-quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with...

An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature technologies on a system is needed to provide increased knowledge to a decision-maker in the conceptu...

The increasing use of sensor networks has led to an ever larger number available spatiotemporal datasets. Forecasting applications using this type data are frequently motivated by important domains such as environmental monitoring. Being able properly assess the performance different forecasting approaches is fundamental achieve progress. However, traditional estimation procedures, cross-valida...

A set of rigorous diagnostic techniques is used to evaluate the forecasting performance of five multivariate time-series models for the U.S. cattle sector. The root-meansquared-error criterion along with an evaluation of the rankings of forecast errors reveals that the Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and the unrestricted VAR (UVAR) models generate forecasts which are superior to both a re...

In this work we propose a Bayesian approach for the parameter estimation problem of stochastic autoregressive models of order p, AR(p), applied to the streamflow forecasting problem. Procedures for model selection, forecasting and robustness evaluation through Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulation techniques are also presented. The proposed approach is compared with the classical one by Bo...

Automatic forecasts of univariate time series are largely demanded in business and science. In this paper, we investigate the forecasting task for geo-referenced time series. We take into account the temporal and spatial dimension of time series to get accurate forecasting of future data. We describe two algorithms for forecasting which ARIMA models. The first is designed for seasonal data and ...

Foreign exchange (Forex) is the global scale trading of currency and the most liquid financial market. Therefore, predicting Forex has been challenged for many years. On the other hand, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was widely used by researchers as a prediction technique since it can provide the best prediction result. This paper surveys recent literature in the domain of ANN which used to f...

Use of models has become increasingly central to the regulatory process. Modeling is sometimes even explicitly mandated by Congress. The potential benefits are manifold. “Computer modeling,” according to a leading environmental law scholar, “narrows the range of uncertainties related to pollution impacts and causal pathways that have plagued environmental policymaking on all levels.” In turn, “...

Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk es...