The accruals anomaly, demonstrated by Sloan (1996), generated significant excess returns consistently for over four decades until 2002. Since then, the accruals anomaly has apparently disappeared. In this paper, I argue that one factor responsible for this decline is the increasing incidence of analysts’ cash flow forecasts which has provided markets with information about likely future accrual...

on one hand, oil is the greatest energy resource in the world and, on the other hand, because of the role of oil revenue in the economic of oil producer countries, such as iran,it is vital for these countries. so it is necessary to recognize different affective parameters on oil market for these countries. in this research, we try to forecast oil price as an important variable in world wide oil...

This paper identifies and analyzes previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts produced by management, analysts, and extrapolative techniques indicated that: (1) management forecasts were superior to professional analyst forecasts (the mean absolute percentage errors were 15.9 and 17.7, respectively, based on five studies using data from 1967-1974) and (2...

This paper proposes a new method for combining forecasts based on complete subset regressions. For a given set of potential predictor variables we combine forecasts from all possible linear regression models that keep the number of predictors fixed. We explore how the choice of model complexity, as measured by the number of included predictor variables, can be used to trade off the bias and var...

We introduce an effective and computationally fast approach to combine conditional quantile forecasts. The approach uses the information of the relevant loss function for the quantile problem associated to each candidate model in order to define forecast combination weights in a dynamic fashion. Two important advantages of the proposed method are that i) does not require numerical optimization ...

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their time series alternatives, whether the forecasting record has improved over time, the rationality of ma...

A solution to the problem of producing long-range forecasts on a short sampling interval is proposed. It involves the incorporation of information from a long sampling interval series, which could come from an independent source, into forecasts produced by a state-space model based on a short sampling interval. The solution is motivated by the desire to incorporate yearly electricity consumptio...

We examine how the properties of equity analysts’ bank loan loss provision forecasts differ with provision timeliness. We find that the accuracy of analyst provision forecasts relative to time-series provision forecasts is more pronounced for banks with more timely loan loss provisions. Consistent with the greater accuracy of analysts’ provision forecast for timely banks, we find that, controll...

A new approach to downscaling soil moisture forecasts from the seasonal ensemble prediction forecasting system of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is presented in this study. Soil moisture forecasts from this system are rarely used nowadays, although they could provide valuable information. Weaknesses of the model soil scheme in forecasting soil water content and t...

Abstract: Using evaluation methodologies for rare events from meteorology and psychology, we examine the value of probability forecasts of real GDP declines during the current and each of the next four quarters using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We study the quality of these probability forecasts in terms of calibration, resolution, the relative operating characteristic (RO...