making capital and investment is the main driving forces of economic development. based on the investment sensitivity to the changes of some of macro-economic variables and risk and uncertainty, the present study evaluated the effective factors on investment in private sector in iran during 1980-2007. at first, the uncertainty variables of real informal exchange rate, nominal interest rate and ...

BACKGROUND Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We applied a likelihood ap...

This paper considers a plethora of time-series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth, which are widely used in empirical studies. Their relative performances are compared to a benchmark measure using the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the period 1982-2008. The results show that the use of real-tim...

The anemic pace of the recovery of the U.S. economy from the Great Recession has frequently been blamed on heightened uncertainty, much of which concerns the nation’s fiscal policy. Intuition suggests that increased policy uncertainty likely has different impacts on different industries, to the extent that industries differ in their exposure to government policies. This study utilizes industry ...

Is there a trade-off between fluctuations and growth? The empirical evidence is mixed, with some studies finding a positive relationship, while others find a negative one. Our objectives in this paper are to understand how fundamental uncertainty can affect the long run growth rate, and to identify those factors that are important in determining the nature of this relationship. Qualitatively, w...