How should price models be chosen for real option valuation and how should real option cash flows be hedged in the presence of model error? We consider a specific type of model error in the context of the natural gas storage real option: The assumed number of factors in a multifactor futures price model differs from the true number of factors. In terms of valuation, model error does not seem to...

In this paper, we consider the hedging of portfolio loss derivatives using single-name credit default swaps as hedging instruments. The hedging issue is investigated in a general pure jump dynamic setting where default times are assumed to admit a joint density. In a first step, we compute default intensities adapted to the global filtration of defaults. In particular, we stress the impact of a...

Bet-hedging theory addresses how individuals should optimize fitness in varying and unpredictable environments by sacrificing mean fitness to decrease variation in fitness. So far, three main bet-hedging strategies have been described: conservative bet-hedging (play it safe), diversified bet-hedging (don’t put all eggs in one basket) and adaptive coin flipping (choose a strategy at random from ...

We present an explicit hedging strategy, which enables to prove arbitrageness of market incorporating at least two assets depending on the same random factor. The implied Black-Scholes volatility, computed taking into account the form of the graph of the option price, related to our strategy, demonstrates the ”skewness” inherent to the observational data.

A quantum board game is a multi-round protocol between a single quantum player against the quantum board. Molina and Watrous [MW12] discovered quantum hedging. They gave an example for perfect quantum hedging: a board game with winning probability < 1, such that the player can win with certainty at least 1-out-of-2 quantum board games played in parallel. Here we show that perfect quantum hedgin...

Merchants operations involves valuing and hedging the cash flows of commodity and energy conversion assets as real options based on stochastic models that inevitably embed model error. In this paper we quantify how empirically calibrated model errors about the futures price term structure affect the valuation and hedging of commodity storage assets, specifically the storage of natural gas, an i...

We investigate daily robust hedging performance with trading costs for markets of S&P 500 Index option (SPX) and Taiwan Index option (TXO). Robust hedging refers to minimal model dependence on the risky asset price. Two hedging categories including " model-free " and " volatility-model-free, " and nonparametric methods for volatility estimation are considered in our empirical study. In particul...

I explicitly work out closed form solutions for the optimal hedging strategies (in the sense of Bouchaud and Sornette) in the case of European call options, where the underlying is modeled by (unbiased) iid additive returns with Student-t distributions. The results may serve as illustrative examples for option pricing in the presence of fat tails.

Bet-hedging theory addresses how individuals should optimize fitness in varying and unpredictable environments by sacrificing mean fitness to decrease variation in fitness. So far, three main bet-hedging strategies have been described: conservative bet-hedging (play it safe), diversified bet-hedging (don't put all eggs in one basket) and adaptive coin flipping (choose a strategy at random from ...