Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning. Of various methods of estimating the standard deviation of demand, one that has been employed successfully in the recent literature uses dispersion among experts’ forecasts. However, there has been limited empirical validation of this methodology. In this paper we provide a general methodology for estimating the standard d...

Pain is a subjective feeling having sensory, cognitive and emotional components. Brain regions that cognitively affectively contribute to pain sensation are the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), insula, prefontal (PFC) default mode network (DMN). Depression anxiety may accompany they exaggerate via affective disturbance. As complementary treatment of pain, mindfulness meditation which therapeuti...

We hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only in certain conditions. In particular, we expected it to help for problems involving extreme and uncertain values. We first reanalyzed results from two published studies. Decomposition improved accuracy for nine problems that involved extreme and uncertain values, but for six problems with target values that were not e...

Two experiments studied the Ebbinghaus illusion as a function of four stimulus variables: the size of the context circles, the number of context circles, the distance between the context circles and the center circle, and the size of the center circle. The results provided a quantitative test of a judgmental model that considers the Ebbinghaus illusion to be comparative in nature. The context c...

Normal human vision is nearly infallible in modeling the visually sensed physical environment in which it evolved. In contrast, most currently available computer vision systems fall far short of human performance in this task, and further, they are generally not capable of being able to assert the correctness of their judgments. In computerized stereo matching systems, correctness of the simila...

Cognitive theories posit that exposure-based treatments exert their effect on social anxiety by modifying judgmental biases. The present study provides a conservative test of the relative roles of changes in judgmental biases in governing social anxiety reduction and addresses several limitations of previous research. Longitudinal, within-subjects analysis of data from 53 adults with a Diagnost...

Due to the limitation of most statistical forecasting models ignoring contextual information, judgmental adjustment is a widespread practice in business. However, judgmental adjustment still suffers with many kinds of biases and inconsistency inherent in subjective judgment. Our approach uses an adjustment mechanism concerning only with critical cue factors evaluated with genetic algorithm to a...

Although judgmental models are widely applied in practice to alleviate the limitation of statistical models ignoring domain knowledge, they are still suffering from many kinds of biases and inconsistencies inherent in subjective judgments. Moreover, most of the prior studies are often concentrated on making judgmental adjustments to statistical projections and ignore incorporating domain knowle...