In this paper we intend to examine the application of Kullback-Leibler, Hellinger and LINEX loss function in Dynamic Linear Model using the real price of oil for 106 years of data from 1913 to 2018 concerning the asymmetric problem in filtering and forecasting. We use DLM form of the basic Hoteling Model under Quadratic loss function, Kullback-Leibler, Hellinger and LINEX trying to address the ...

Traders are often blamed for high prices, prompting government regulation. We study the effects of a ban layer financing intermediaries in edible oil supply chain Bangladesh during 2011–2012. Contrary to predictions standard model an oligopolistic chain, caused downstream wholesale and retail prices rise, pass-through changes imported crude price fall. These results can be explained by extensio...

This paper adds to the existing literature on the estimation of future consumption patterns. I first forecast the demand of beef, chicken and pig products for the years 2020 and 2040 using a simultaneous equations model for the world and specific regions. Then, using existing research on “best existing case” scenarios of the ecological impact of different foods, I estimate the land usage and gr...

This study explores the for labor-related production impacts of temperature stress both for its own interest and to understand the scope for adaptation to climate change. Focusing on non-agricultural output, I find that hot temperature exerts a significant causal impact on local labor product, with substantially larger effects in highly exposed industries such as construction, manufacturing, an...

abstract the aim of this study was to selecting the suitable model for forecast land, production and price of sugar beet in iran. for this purpose, models applied to forecast are arima, single and double exponential smoothing, harmonic, artificial neural network and arch for period 1993-2008. results of durbin-watson tests, land, production and price of sugar beet series were found non stochast...

Can targeting information to network-central farmers induce more adoption of a new agricultural technology? By combining social network data and field experiment in 200 villages Malawi, we find that central is important spur the diffusion process. We also provide evidence one explanation for why centrality matters: process governed by complex contagion. Our results are consistent with model whi...

The election of Pope Francis reanimated the intellectual debate about capitalism and socialism in Catholic Church. This paper starts from this discus­ sion order to analyze economic thinking Austrian School relation Christian anthropology. It defends considering fundamental principles a free society institutional poliarchy. Following Hayek refutes critics toward traditional morality. Finally, i...

Factor market failures can limit adoption of profitable technologies. We leverage a plot-level spatial regression discontinuity design in the context irrigation use by farmers provided free access to water. Using boosts profits 43–62 percent. Yet, only irrigate 30 percent plots because labor costs. demonstrate inefficient use, showing irrigating one plot reduce their on other plots. This ineffi...

Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance: The Case of Mexico Recently, Weather Index Insurance (WII) has received considerable attention as a tool to insure farmers against weather related risks, particularly in developing countries. Donor organizations, local governments, insurance companies, development economists as well as agricultural economists are discussing the cos...