A new approach is developed to examine potential causality between merger activity and industrial production. The proposed method combines an information criterion based approach to lag optimisation with joint maximum likelihood estimation of an autoregressive distributed lag model and GARCH(1,1) specification. Application to UK data provides significant evidence in support of causality between...

From 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added...

The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the long run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. TodaYamamoto andWald-test causality tests have identified the direction of the causal relationship between these two variables in the case of Pakistan in the period between 1971 and 2008. Ng-Perron and ...

Framing is a sophisticated form of discourse in which the speaker tries to induce a cognitive bias through consistent linkage between a topic and a specific context (frame). We build on political science and communication theory and use probabilistic topic models combined with time series regression analysis (autoregressive distributed-lag models) to gain insights about the language dynamics in...

The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between short-term (hourly) exposures to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and the fractional concentration of nitric oxide in exhaled breath (FE(NO) in children with asthma participating in an intensive panel study in Seattle, Washington. The exposure data were collected with tapered element oscillation m...

The 2008 crisis highlighted the importance of using stress tests in banking practice. The role of these stress tests is to identify and precisely estimate the effect of possible future changes in economic conditions on the capital adequacy and profitability of banks. This paper seeks to show a possible methodology to calculate the stressed point-in-time PD parameter. The presented approach cont...

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between carbon emissions, income, energy and total employment in selected OPEC countries for the period of 1971–2002. We mainly focus on the link between energy use and income. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables in Saudi Arabia only. The long run for...

This study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between immigration and two macroeconomic indicators, GDP per capita and unemployment, in Sweden using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure and Granger-causality within vector error correction model (VECM) based on annual data spanning the period between 1980 and 2004. Results of the ARDL bounds tes...

This paper studies the role of exchange rate volatility in determining the UK’s real imports from three major developing countries Brazil, China, and South Africa. The paper contributes to the literature by investigating the third country effect and also by analyzing the impact of the current financial crisis on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports. This paper furthe...

We show that the use of prior information derived from former empirical findings and/or subject matter theory regarding the lag structure of the observable variables together with an AR process for the error terms can produce univariate and single equation models that are intuitively appealing, simple to implement and work well in practice. JEL Classification