Abstract Monitoring the state of currently running processes and reacting to ad-hoc situations during runtime is a key challenge in Business Process Management (BPM) . This especially case cyber-physical environments that are characterized by high context sensitivity. MAPE-K control loops widely used for self-management these describe four phases approaching this challenge: Monitor, Analyze, Pl...

Fall 2008 Issue 11 FORESIGHT Stephan Kolassa is Vice President of Corporate Research at SAF AG in Switzerland. He has worked extensively with some of Europe’s largest retail chains in producing automatic forecasts for large batches of products. Stephan and his colleague Wolfgang Schütz coauthored “Advantages of the MAD/MEAN Ratio Over the MAPE” in Foresight’s Spring 2007 issue. INTRODUCTION Sal...

As a versatile investment tool in energy markets for speculators and hedgers, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) futures are quite well known. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid model incorporating ARCH family models and ANN model to forecast GSCI futures price. Empirical results show that the hybrid ARCH(1)-M-ANN model is superior to ARIMA, ARCH(1),GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1) and ARIMA-...

We introduce a method for the assessment of trust for n-open systems based on a measurement of fidelity and present a prototypic implementation of a complaint architecture. We construct a MAPE loop which monitors the compliance between corresponding figures of interest in cyberand physical domains; derive measures of the system’s trustworthiness; and use them to plan and execute actions aiming ...

Error measures for the evaluation of forecasts are usually based on the size of the forecast errors. Common measures are e.g. the Mean Squared Error (MSE), the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) or the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Alternative measures for the comparison of forecasts are turning points or hits-and-misses, where an indicator loss function is used to decide, if a forecast is ...

In this paper, we developed a new method to forecast 10minutes ahead wind speed based on Heteroscdastic Gaussian Process and investigated the impacts of this predicting on a mix-mode operated building. The forecasting result shows the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 9.2%. The indoor air temperature, infiltration air change rate and cooling energy consumption varied 25% in average compa...

Bamboo is abundantly and vastly available, which known for its strength verity of usage. In this work, the effect acrylonitrile/MAPE/nano-clay on bamboo nanocomposites (BNCs) optimization were evaluated using response surface methodology (RSM). The developed BNCs characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscope (SEM), thermog...