We present a simple model of petroleum exploration and development that can be applied to study the performance of alternative tax systems and identify potential distortions. Although the model is a highly simplified, it incorporates many factors and some of the key tradeoffs that would influence an investor’s investment behavior. The model recognizes the role of enhanced oil recovery and treat...

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC Russia (known as OPEC+) cut production in an attempt to raise the price crude oil. In corona virus shock collapse this coalition, members did not agree on keeping market tight face large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective sustaining oil? early when strategy place, inventories fell substantially re...

This paper compares technologies across space and time on the basis of factual and counterfactual substitution elasticities and argues that differences in estimated substitution elasticities should be decomposed into two counterfactual components. While the first component is designed to indicate how the ease of substitution is altered by varied economic circumstances, the second addresses the ...

I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: What does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price evolution, and how it should be modeled? Can models of reversion to stochastically fluctuating trend lines help us forecast prices over horizons of 20 years or more? And what do t...

In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for the US over the 1960– 2000 period is estimated using a common trends model. In this framework, core inflation is interpreted and constructed as the long-run forecast of inflation conditional on the information contained in nominal money growth, output fluctuations and movements in the oil price. Unlike other commonly used me...

I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, and inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibrium...

The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 2010 has focused considerable attention on the potential liability and the operating conduct of big oil companies. This paper shows that limiting the ability of a company to insure and diversify its risks creates incentives to internalize the welfare effects of catastrophic events, leading to a welfare improvement. We model an economy with complete financia...

Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. Changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of production: the opportunity cost of exercising the option to produce the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of ...

Article history: Received 21 April 2008 Received in revised form 13 May 2009 Accepted 14 May 2009 Available online 27 May 2009 This paper assumes that the decision makers of OPEC (or at least of its core members) are interested in both profits and political payoffs (support, popularity, being a hero of the Arab or Islamic street, etc.). The oil weapon, i.e. a reduction of output is the most pow...

Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. Changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of production: the opportunity cost of exercising the option to produce the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of ...