We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically signif...

WHEN THE U.S. INVADED Iraq in March 2003, many economists feared that the war would lead to a sharp decline in Iraqi oil production, a spike in oil prices, and a woeful U.S. economy that would follow the scripts of the oil shocks of 1973, 1978, and 1990. Real oil prices did increase, indeed more than tripled, from $20 in 2001:Q4 to $62 in 2006:Q3 (in 2007 dollars). But the ailments associated w...

I use daily futures price data to examine the behavior of natural gas and crude oil price volatility in the U.S. since 1990. I test whether there has been a significant trend in volatility, whether there was a short-term increase in volatility during the time of the Enron collapse, and whether natural gas and crude oil price volatilities are interrelated. I also measure the persistence of shock...

Recently developed structural models of the global crude oil market imply that the surge in the real price of oil between mid 2003 and mid 2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting unexpectedly high growth mainly in emerging Asia. We evaluate this proposition using an alternative data source and a different econometric methodology. Rath...

the real business cycle theory was applied to investigate the hypothesis of cyclical agreeable treatment of real wages, for men and women work force, in the iranian agricultural sector for the period of 1971-2006. on the basis of this theory, the impacts of supply side shocks (productivity and oil income shocks), are anticipated on the fluctuations of the real wages. the dominant effect of supp...