This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted th...

This paper discusses the model construction and the association between the Singapore’s and the Hong Kong’s stock markets. Simultaneously, this paper uses the high and the low oil price periods’ volatility as a threshold for the Singapore’s and the Hong Kong’s stock market returns. The study data period is from January, 2000 to September, 2004 and June, 2005 to October, 2008. This paper also ut...

Regarding the fact that each country might be a net oil seller or net buyer, and considering its large share in the whole economy, the price of this commodity as well as its volatility could affect all economies around the world.  The impact of oil price volatility on the economy is seemed to be more dominant in Iran rather than any other developed or emerging economies, especially in recent ye...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: F1 F4 Q43 N75 Keywords: Oil price shock Trade balance VAR Granger non-causality test Gregory-Hansen cointegration test This study aims to examine whether a large part of the variability of trade balances and their oil and non-oil components is associated with oil price fluctuations. The long-run causality running from oil price to overall, oil and non-o...

Abstract We forecast monthly realized volatility (RV) of the oil price based on an extended heterogenous autoregressive (HAR)-RV model that incorporates role El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as captured by Equatorial Index (EQSOI). Based period covering 1986 January to 2020 December and studying various rolling-estimation windows horizons, we find EQSOI has predictive value for oil-price RV...

The U.S. shale revolution, using new technologies to extract crude oil, has led dynamics in the supply side of global oil market. We ask whether revolution dampened role geopolitical risk price volatility. extend a reduced form Structural Break Threshold Vector Autoregressive (SBT-VAR) model structural SBT-VAR and identify innovations by allowing conditional heteroskedasticity. Compared with co...