Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact o...

This paper explores how oil price shocks a ect scal policy and macroeconomic performance in an oil exporting small open economy. In this type of economy, oil price shocks in uence scal policy because they have nontrivial e ects on the government's budget constraint. On one hand, oil price shocks a ect revenue directly as oil revenue constitutes a large share of total revenue. On the other hand,...

We estimate the effects of unexpected changes in oil prices on output for the case of Venezuela, an oil-exporting economy. Following Hamilton (2003), Lee et al. (1995), and Mork (1989), we estimate measures of oil shocks and determine the effect of these shocks on the Venezuelan economy. Our results suggest that oil shocks have had positive and significant effects on output growth in Venezuela ...

This study proposes a multiple kernel learning (MKL)-based regression model for crude oil spot price forecasting and trading. We used a well-known trend-following technical analysis indicator, the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator, for extracting features from original spot prices. Additionally, we factored in the possibility that movements of target crude oil prices ma...

This paper explores the impact of investor flows and financial market conditions on returns in crude-oil futures markets. I argue that informational frictions and the associated speculative activity may induce prices to drift away from “fundamental” values, and may result in booms and busts in prices. Particular attention is given to the interplay between imperfect information about real econom...

In the long-term, crude oil prices may impact the economic stability and sustainability of many countries, especially those depending on oil imports. This study thus suggests an alternative model for accurately forecasting oil prices while reflecting structural changes in the oil market by using a Bayesian approach. The prior information is derived from the recent and expected structure of the ...

This paper discussed the impact of higher oil prices on the Pakistan’s economy during 1990 to 2008. Pakistan is not oil producing rather oil-importing country. An increase in oil price leads to inflation, increase budget deficit and puts downward pressure on exchange rate which makes imports more expensive. The rising oil prices are the major concern for all the developing economies and Pakista...

In this paper, we propose novel decision support system (DSS) named OPEC-DSS to support OPEC’s decisions on oil production level. OPEC-DSS is based on two important factors in oil prices; the first is OPEC oil production level (OPEC-PL) and the second is USA oil imports level (USA-IL). The OPEC-DSS support the analysers and decision-makers in three following issues: 1) OPEC-DSS can propose the ...