This paper uses a panel of state-level data to test whether changes in bank loan supply affect output. Since the U.S. states are small open economies with fixed exchange rates, state-specific shocks to money demand are automatically accommodated, leading to changes in lending if banks rely on deposits as a source of funding. Using these shocks as an instrumental variable, I find that shocks to ...

We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output. To avoid this outcome we recommend a...

We analyze the effect of the Byrd Amendment, which amended the US Tariff Act of 1930 to allow revenue from antidumping duties to be distributed to domestic import-competing firms. In an international duopoly framework it is shown that it urges the home firm to restrict output so that the foreign firm increases output and that revenue from the duties increases. Consequently, not only the home fi...

A model of the cultural co-evolution of honesty and capital is analyzed. It is shown that the sign of the payoff differential between honest and dishonest types depends on the ratio of benefits that an employee gets from shirking to the resulting loss of revenue to the firm. If this ratio decreases with capital accumulation, then multiple equilibria in output and honesty are possible in the lon...

This paper analyzes the impact of investment in information technology (IT) on the recent resurgence of world economic growth. We describe the growth of the world economy, seven regions, and 14 major economies during the period 1989–2004. We allocate the growth of world output between input growth and productivity and find, surprisingly, that input growth greatly predominates! Moreover, differe...

We develop a two-country overlapping-generations model with domestic financial frictions and show that cross-country differences in financial development explain three recent patterns of international capital flows. In our model, domestic financial frictions distort the interest rates and production efficiency in the less financially developed country. Capital flows not only lead to cross-count...

Stability of collusion in differentiated oligopolies is studied without symmetry restrictions on the available strategies. It is demonstrated that if the number of firms is sufficiently large, two-phase stick-and-carrot punishment schemes apply at the highest possible discount rate with respect to collusion on the joint profit-maximizing output. If stick-and-carrot punishment schemes are used, ...

This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data spanning 1980–2000. The P model is shown to have considerable empirical support. Thus, the “price gap” or, equivalently, the “real money gap” (the gap between current real balances and long-run equilibrium real balances), has substantial predictive power for future inflation. The...

The successful pursuit of the objective of low inflation by central banks in recent decades has also delivered low variability of both inflation and output. At the same time, numerous financial and other "imbalances" (defined here as significant and sustained deviations from historical norms) have emerged. Should these imbalances revert to the mean, there could be significant effects on output ...

We show that equilibrium involuntary unemployment emerges in a multi– stage game model where all market power resides with firms, on both the labour and the output market. Firms decide wages, employment, output and prices, and under constant returns there exists a continuum of subgame perfect Nash equilibria involving unemployment and positive profits. A firm does not undercut the equilibrium w...