Abstract In the past decade we have witnessed failure of traditional polls in predicting presidential election outcomes across world. To understand reasons behind these failures analyze raw data a trusted pollster which failed to predict, along with rest pollsters, surprising 2019 Argentina. Analysis and re-weighted from longitudinal surveys performed before after elections reveals clear biases...

When pre-election polls fail, citizens make choices in an environment where the information is inaccurate. This bad for democracy. Understanding conditions under which succeed or fail thus very important quality of Polling firms have often blamed voter turnout when they failed to provide accurate information. There is, however, no systematic test impact on polling errors. Using data from 2104 2...

T he trial-heat forecasting equation grew out of an examination of Gallup’s trial-heat polls ~“if the election were held today, who would you vote for?”! at various points in election years as predictors of the November vote ~Campbell and Wink 1990!. My co-author Ken Wink and I found, not surprisingly, that polls as literal forecasts were not very accurate until just before the election, that t...