The Allais Paradox, or common consequence effect, has been a standard challenge to normative theories of risky choice since its proposal over 60 years ago. However, neither its causes nor the conditions necessary to create the effect are well understood. Two experiments test the effects of losses and event splitting on the Allais Paradox. Experiment 1 found that the Allais Paradox occurs for bo...

this article investigates fluctuations in stocks prices at tehran stock exchange, assuming that investors' utility stems from fluctuations in value of stocks as well as consumption. thus, the two behavioral phenomena discussed in prospect theory, i. e. loss aversion and house money effect, were factored into consumption-based asset pricing model and investor's utility function, which ...

Most decisions must be made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Economists and psychologists have devoted much attention to modeling decisions made under conditions of risk in which options can be characterized by a known probability distribution over possible outcomes. The descriptive shortcomings of classical economic models motivated the development of prospect theory (D. Kahnem...

Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them) and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to...

Gains and Losses in the Eyes of the Beholder: A Comparative Study of Foreign Policy Decision Making Under Risk. (December 2004) Yi Yang, B.A., Foreign Affairs College Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Alex Mintz Prospect theory is a descriptive model of individual decision-making under risk (Kahneman and Tversky 1979). The central tenet of prospect theory posits that the risk orientation of deci...

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are typically risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, known as the "reflection effect". People are much more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same magnitude, a phenomenon called "loss aversi...

Failure is embarrassing. In gambles involving both skill and chance, we show that a strategic desire to avoid appearing unskilled generates behavioral anomalies consistent with prospect theory’s concepts of loss aversion, framing effects, and probability weighting. Based on models from the career concerns literature that formalize early social psychology models of risk taking, the results show ...

This paper derives conditions under which the standard decomposition of unconditional expected utility into marginal probabilities and conditional expected utilities generalizes to Cumulative Prospect Theory. The results are relevant for empirical analyses in which marginal probabilities are used as explanatory variables.

We solve a liquidation problem for an agent with preferences consistent with the prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979). We find that the agent is willing to hold a risky project with a relatively inferior Sharpe ratio if the project is currently making losses, and intends to liquidate it when it breaks even. On the other hand, the agent may liquidate a project with a relatively superio...