We describe a model to estimate event rates of a non-homogeneous spatio-temporal Poisson process. A Bayesian change point model is described to detect changes in temporal rates. The model is used to estimate whether a change in event rates occurred for a process at a given location, the time of change, and the event rates before and after the change. To estimate spatially varying rates, the spa...

We study deep aseismic slip along the central section of the San Jacinto Fault, near the Anza Seismic Gap, in southern California. Elevated strain-rates following the remote Mw7.2 April 4, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah and the local Mw5.4, July 7, 2010 Collins Valley earthquakes were recorded by Plate Boundary Observatory borehole strain-meters near Anza, and were accompanied by vigorous aftershock seq...

1Computational Geodynamics Laboratory, Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing100871, China *Corresponding author address: Prof. Qinghua Huang, Computational Geodynamics Laboratory, Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, China; E-mail: [email protected] A statistical method, which is called the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm and takes into account information suc...

Reservoir-induced seismicity has been observed near Koyna Dam, India since the early 1960s. In order to understand the seismotectonics of the region we analyzed available seismicity data from 1963 to 1995. Over 300 earthquakes with M]3.0 were relocated using revised location parameters (station locations, velocity model, station delays and Vp /Vs ratio). The spatial pattern of earthquakes was i...

Widespread seismicity was triggered by the June 28, 1992, Landers California, earthquake at a rate which was maximum immediately after passage of the exciting seismic waves. Rectified diffusion of vapor from hydrothermal liquids and magma into bubbles oscillating in an earthquake can increase the local pore pressure to seismically significant levels within the duration of the earthquake. In a h...

S U M M A R Y I n order to understand the underlying physics of distributed seismicity better we have considered a 2-D array of slider blocks connected by springs and interacting via static friction with a surface. There is no driving plate in this model. The time evolution of the system is found from numerical simulations in a cellular automata formulation. Energy is conserved and is the singl...

Traditional statistical methods for seismic zonation require information from many subjects, such as regional geology and neotectonics, seismicity, stress field, damage analysis of historic earthquakes, geophysics and others. These subjects are weighted differently during statistics. In fact, the information from most of these subjects is more like fuzzy sets, ie, it is a sort of estimation rat...

The null hypothesis in assessing earthquake predictions is often, loosely speaking, that the successful predictions are chance coincidences. To make this more precise requires specifying a chance model for the predictions and/or the seismicity. The null hypothesis tends to be rejected not only when the predictions have merit, but also when the chance model is inappropriate. In one standard appr...

We investigate upper plate stressing during the earthquake cycle in a subduction segment, using three-dimensional (3-D) elastic models to address the effects of strongly heterogeneous coupling along strike of the interplate interface. We show how heterogeneity controls the locations and mechanisms of seismicity in the upper plate. Oblique subduction segments, two from the Aleutians (Andreanof I...

We present statistical evidence for a temporal link between variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the occurrence of earthquakes on the East Pacific Rise (EPR). We adopt a zero-inflated Poisson regression model to represent the relationship between the number of earthquakes in the Easter microplate on the EPR and ENSO (expressed using the southern oscillation index (SOI) for ...