Wide-spread real-time applications make it necessary for service providers to guarantee QoS parameters. This requires precise forecast of network traffic. A possible method of the forecast is measuring traffic then analyzing it and fitting model to the measured data, finally predicting the observed parameter using the fitted model. The efficiency of the prediction is decreased by outlying sampl...

Worldwide, influenza is estimated to result in approximately 3 to 5 million annual cases of severe illness and approximately 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. We need an accurate time-series model to predict the number of influenza patients. Although time-series models with different time lags as feature spaces could lead to varied accuracy, past studies simply adopted a time lag in their models witho...

Short-term forecast of pertussis incidence is helpful for advanced warning and planning resource needs for future epidemics. By utilizing the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model as alterative models with R software, this paper analyzed data from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) between January 2005 and June 2...

Previous research for short-term traffic prediction mostly forecasts only one time interval ahead. Such a methodology may not be adequate for response to emergency circumstances and road maintenance activities that last for a few hours or a longer period. In this study, various approaches, including naïve factor methods, exponential weighted moving average (EWMA), autoregressive integrated movi...

Abstract—In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All...

As to the established gray model based on the linear time-variant and individual prediction model of ARIMA, this article constructs the combined forecasting model based on the gray model and the time series model by means of relative error weighing. This prediction indicates that both the gray model and ARIMA model exert efficient function on the Torpedo development cost prediction, and the com...