the frequent occurrence of currency crises in recent years brought the early warning literature back in the researchers spotlight. in recent years, concept of an early warning system (ews) developed that should be able to identify various costly events, such as currency crises, early enough for policy makers to reduce the costs. this study attempted by using iran's economy quarterly data d...

T his paper aims to understand the structure and determinants of international bank l ending among APEC economies. Specifically, this paper first aims to analyze whether Australia Canada Japan Chinese Taipei and the United States, which are the only APEC members for which international borrowing data are available, tend to lend more intensively to other APEC members than to non-APEC countries ....

Is market-based or bank-based financial system better for fostering technological innovation as an engine of growth? I present evidence that bank-based systems promote rapid technological progress in those industrial sectors that depend heavily on external finance for funding innovation by facilitating credit access to younger firms. On the other hand, I also find evidence of a general positive...

Banks are growing ever larger compared to their national economies. We show that increases in relative bank size (measured as a bank’s liabilities divided by national GDP) are linked to banks displaying higher tail risk. This effect is not entirely due to risk channels that disproportionately expose relatively large banks to systematic tail risks, sovereign risks, or banking crises. Instead, we...

We explore the implications of risk-based capital requirements, à la Basel, for the conduct of monetary policy. A “bank balance-sheet channel” of monetary policy is identified, which operates through bank capital and influences the bank’s loan decision. Using a dynamic banking model, we endogenize the capital decision and show that banks are likely to hold capital above the regulatory minimum t...

This paper uses a panel of state-level data to test whether changes in bank loan supply affect output. Since the U.S. states are small open economies with fixed exchange rates, state-specific shocks to money demand are automatically accommodated, leading to changes in lending if banks rely on deposits as a source of funding. Using these shocks as an instrumental variable, I find that shocks to ...

We examine the dissent voting record of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its first decade. Probit estimates indicate the impact of career experience on dissent voting is negligible, whereas the impact of forecast inflation is pronounced. In addition to finding a role for dynamics, we also find a role for unobserved heterogeneity in the form of member-specific fixed-effects...

Deposit insurance schemes and bank failure resolution systems are asked to fulfill conflicting public policy objectives: on the one hand, they are supposed to protect small depositors and prevent contagion risks from bank runs; on the other hand, they are supposed to minimize aggressive risk taking by banks. This paper discusses the incentive-compatible design and interaction of both components...

We study a simple monetary model in which a central bank faces a boundedly rational private sector and has the goal of stabilizing inflation. The system’s dynamics is generated by the interaction of the expectations about inflation of the various agents involved. A modest degree of heterogeneity in such expectations is found to have interesting consequences, in particular when the central bank ...

This paper studies an advantage of commitment over discretion when a central bank observes only noisy measures of current inflation and output, in the context of an optimizing model with nominal-price stickiness. Under a commitment regime, if current policy turns out to be too expansionary (contractionary) because of the bank’s information problem, subsequent policies should be slightly contrac...