This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the price and macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC high-frequency data, I identify an news shock. These shocks have statistically economically significant effects. Negative leads to immediate increase prices, gradual fall production, inventories. has consequences for US econo...

Differential tax analysis is used to show how the socially optimal fiscal-tax to liquidity-tax ratio changes with the relative size of the tax-evading hidden economy. The smaller the relative size of the hidden economy, the larger the optimal fiscal-tax to liquidity-tax ratio. The empirical cross-section and panel evidence supports this theoretical result. JEL: E31, E52, H21, O17

This paper presents out-of-sample inflation forecasting results based on relative price variability and skewness. It is demonstrated that forecasts on long horizons of 1.5-2 years are significantly improved if the forecast equation is augmented with skewness. JEL: E17, E31, C43

This article uses a DSGE framework to evaluate the role of monetary policy in determining the likelihood of encountering the zero lower bound. We find that the probability of experiencing episodes of being at zero lower bound depends almost exclusively on the monetary policy rule. A policy rule, such as the one proposed by Taylor (1993) which is based on the dual mandate is highly likely to lea...

This paper demonstrates, contrary to what has been shown recently, that demand pressure, besides differentiated cost-pressure, matters both in the labor market and the market for goods in the determination of wage and price inflation. We consider from the theoretical perspective and estimate for the USA, using OLS and more advanced methods, both separately and simultaneously wage and price Phil...

Boschen and Weise (Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2003) model the probability of a large upturn in in‡ation. We extend their work to show that openness to trade exerts a negative e¤ect on the probability of such an event. Keywords: In‡ation starts, trade openness. JEL classi…cation: E31, F41.

the main purpose of this paper is to examine the convergence of price-levels of tradable goods in comparison to that of services (non-tradable) under the free trade among iranian provinces over 2007- 2012. this comparison has been achieved by applying the pair-wise approach which has been recently developed by pesaran (2005). in this approach, the time series models (adf, df-gls and kpss unit r...

we have studied the relation between bank deposit rates and house prices in iran. for that, we have run some var models, using the following variables: real deposit rates (including 1 and 5 years deposit rates), money supply (including the high powered money and the liquidity), gdp, housing services index, and number of licenses for new houses. our results show that a reduction in the deposit r...

This paper estimates and compares four versions of the sticky price New Keynesian model for the Euro area, using a Bayesian approach as described in Rabanal and Rubio-Ramírez (2003). We find that the average duration of price contracts is between four and eight quarters, similar to the one estimated in the United States, while price indexation is found to be smaller. On the other hand, average ...

We study the effects of firm’s credit condition on (1) labor market performance and (2) the inflation and unemployment relationship, in a new monetarist model. Better credit condition has positive impact on labor market as firms save on financing cost, improve profitability, and thus create more vacancies. Inflation increases the financing cost and thus discourages job creation. On the other ha...