In this paper we provide new evidence about the relationship between financial crises and economic situation for different countries which belong to the OECD and emergent economies of Latin America and Asia. The results show new support to the different influence of economic situation according to the type of financial crises. Aggregate data and panel techniques are used taking into account the...

In case of speculative attacks, the central banks' decisions to intervene or not to intervene seem to play an important role for the economic costs of currency crises. The central bank can either abstain from intervening or start an intervention, which in turn can be successful or unsuccessful. Therefore, an adequate analysis of the costs of currency crises has to take into account three differ...

A recent paper by Kraay (2003) documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper extends Kraay’s work by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literatur...

We provide one of the first tests of recent macro global-game crisis models that show that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises (e.g. Angeletos and Werning 2006; Morris and Shin 2002, 2003). In these models, self-fulfilling crises (independent of fundamentals) can occur only when publicly disclosed fundamental signals have high precision; fundamentals are thus the sole driver o...

Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recurrent events. A currency crisis is often followed by an economic downturn while pegging often begets a boom. In this paper I study why a benevolent central bank should pursue a monetary policy that leads to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. I show that the optimal policy induces a competitive e...

This paper surveys the theoretical literature on currency crises in order to determine the usefulness and limitations of existing models in understanding the recent currency crises, particularly the one in East Asia, which began with the forced devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997. One may delineate three broad groups of models. The ‘first generation’ models are based on the canonical pape...

We have developed a new financial indicator – called the Interest Rate Differential Adjusted for Volatility (IRDAV) measure – to assist investors in currency markets. On a monthly basis, we rank currency pairs according to this measure and generate a basket of pairs with the highest IRDAV values. Under positive market conditions, an IRDAV based investment strategy (buying a currency with high i...

COPING WITH AND CASHING IN ON INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL VOLATILITY Graham Bird and Ramkishen S. Rajan The political economy of currency taxation suggests that the idea will receive more support if it can be shown to make a significant contribution to offsetting the perceived inefficiencies of private international capital markets. This paper explores what can be expected from a currency tax in this...

The paper develops an alternative hypothesis that attributes collateral responsibility for therecent spate of financial crises to a basic flaw of the architecture of the international financialsystem, free markets for foreign exchange. A valid positional distinction between reserve/ hardand soft currencies, based on reputation, accounts for the systematic substitution of the former<...

Currency crises have occurred in Indonesia 1997-1998 and 2008, causing significant losses both terms of economy social life. Therefore, a system is needed that can detect currency to create economic stability. Crises be detected through indicators such as Stock Exchange Composite Index (IDX Composite) or Jakarta (JCI). This study aims determine the appropriate model predict crisis from November...