Under bond-rate transmission of monetary policy, we show a generalized Taylor Principle requires a lower bound to the average anticipated path of policy responses. This result helps explain the puzzling observation that bond rates appear to exhibit stable responses to inflation, even in periods of passive policy. Another possible explanation is time-varying term premia with risk pricing that de...

Forecast horizons are de ned as long enough planning horizons that ensure agreement of rst period optimal production decisions of nite and in nite horizon problems regardless of changes in future demand. In this paper, we prove forecast horizon existence and provide computational procedures for production planning problems that satisfy the following monotonicity property: for any xed nite plann...

The paper examines within a uni…ed methodology expectational coordination in a series of economic models. The methodology views the predictions associated with the Rational Expectations Hypothesis as reasonable whenever they can be derived from more basic Common Knowledge hypothesis. The paper successively considers a simple non noisy N-dimensional model, standard models with " intrinsic " unce...

This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The VAR parameters estimates are then used to compute real returns conditional volatility across investme...

Support Vector Regression (SVR) has been widely applied in time series forecasting. Considering long term predictions, iterative predictions perform many one-step-ahead predictions until the desired horizon is achieved. This process accumulates the error from previous predictions and may affect the quality of forecasts. In order to improve long term iterative predictions a hybrid multiple Autor...

Abstract. Long term optimal investment problems are studied in a factor model with matrix valued state variables. Explicit parameter restrictions are obtained under which, for an isoelastic investor, the finite horizon value function and optimal strategy converge to their long-run counterparts as the investment horizon approaches infinity. This convergence also yields portfolio turnpikes for ge...

We study quadratic optimal stochastic control problems with control dependent noise state equation perturbed by an affine term and with stochastic coefficients. Both infinite horizon case and ergodic case are treated. To this purpose we introduce a Backward Stochastic Riccati Equation and a dual backward stochastic equation, both considered in the whole time line. Besides some stabilizability c...

We examine the dynamic pricing decision of a …rm facing random demand while selling a …xed stock of two di¤erentiated products over an in…nite horizon. Prices in each period depend on the available stock of both products (varieties). In addition to the standard tradeo¤ between a higher revenue and the probability of selling the product, a higher price for one product also a¤ects the probability...

We study the development of a social norm of trust and reciprocity via the contagious strategy as de ned in Kandori (1992) among a group of strangers. The players anonymously and randomly meet each other and play a binary trust game in the in nite horizon. In order to provide the investors with proper incentives to follow the contagious strategy, the su cient condition requires that there exist...

We prove theorems pertaining to periodic arrays of spherical obstacles which show how the macroscopic limit of the mean free path depends on the scaling of the size of the obstacles. We treat separately the cases where the obstacles are totally and partially absorbing, and we also distinguish between two-dimensional arrays, where our results are optimal, and higher dimensional arrays where they...