The risks and benefits associated with a given fishery-management measure, such as choice of a total allowable catch (TAC), depend on how future measures are to be chosen. It is therefore more appropriate to assess the risks and benefits of procedures or algorithms for determining management actions rather than those of single actions. The properties of a management algorithm can be explored by...

PURPOSE: The Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) Score is a model developed to predict the risk of surgical site infections (SSI) within 30 days after breast reconstruction. This was derived from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database, where the average risk of SSI was 3.75%. We aim to externally validate this model in our cohort of patients who have undergon...

Adaptation in a Changing Environment: Phenotypic Diversity in Response to Environmental Uncertainty and Information Matina C. Donaldson-Matasci Chair of the Supervisory Committee: Professor Carl T. Bergstrom Department of Biology Organisms living in a changing environment must be adapted for a wide range of conditions. However, it is often difficult to be well-equipped for all possible situatio...

Low- and middle-income countries have a higher burden of fatal and non-fatal injuries. The lack of evidence-based information hampers efforts for injury prevention. The aim of this study was to calculate non-fatal injury incidence rates and to investigate causes and risk factors for non-fatal injuries in Khartoum state. Information was gathered in a community-based survey using a stratified two...

Two broad heuristic strategies have been employed to explain the success of prior burglary experience in predicting future burglaries. Event dependency explanations (Tseloni and Pease, 1997) assign a causal role to prior burglaries in influencing subsequent burglaries, whereas risk heterogeneity explanations interpret prior burglaries as mere "markers" of preexisting and more fundamental risk f...

In this paper we study approximating the total loss associated with the individual insurance risk model by a compound Poisson random variable. By minimizing the expectation of the absolute deviation of the compound Poisson random variable from the true total loss, we investigate not only the optimal compound Poisson random variable but also the numerical calculation of the approximation error. ...

The Child and Adolescent Functional Assessment Scale (CAFAS) is a multidimensional measure of degree of impairment in functioning. Interrater reliability data are presented for lay raters, graduate students, and frontline staff. Reliability was high for the total score and behaviorally-oriented scales. Construct, concurrent, and discriminant validity were assessed with the sample of children an...

Recent research suggested that the predictive validity of adult sexual offender risk assessment measures can be affected when used cross-culturally, but there is no published study on the predictive validity of risk assessment measures for youth who sexually offended in a non-Western context. This study compared the predictive validity of three youth risk assessment measures (i.e., the Estimate...

Natural tsunami catastrophes occurred over the years have developed the interest in studying the associated physical phenomena in order to refine existing modeling tools and enhance alert mechanisms. To this purpose, it is essential to carry out an adequate risk analysis for the most exposed areas and therefore to study any historical event that may provide useful indications on the dynamics of...

BACKGROUND There are many different potential strategies for identification of patients eligible for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. The ability to use a more efficient strategy has a value. This paper models the costs and benefits of a number of identification strategies and estimates the additional value of an information-based strategy. DESIGN Modelling study. METHODS Ten-y...