In industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. There are many researches made on this. In this paper, a hybrid method is introduced and plural methods are compared. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method(ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoot...

Different studies have pointed out Navarre as one of the regions of Spain with the highest incidence rates of brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancer. Trend analysis for cancer incidence rates for long periods of time, might help determining risk factors as well as, assessing prevention actions involved in this disease. The objective of this study was to describe the incidence of br...

Multiplicative trend exponential smoothing has received very little attention in the literature. It involves modelling the local slope by smoothing successive ratios of the local level, and this leads to a forecast function that is the product of level and growth rate. By contrast, the popular Holt method uses an additive trend formulation. It has been argued that more real series have multipli...

where it is assumed that the expected value of X(t) is zero. There is no commonly accepted precise definition for trend, but it is usually spoken of as a nonrandom (deterministic) smooth function representing long-term movement or systematic variations in a series (for example, Priestley (1981) refers to a trend as “. . . a tendency to increase (or decrease) steadily over time . . . [or to] flu...

The article considers the Yule-Walker estimator of the autoregressive coefficient based on the observed time series that contains an unknown trend function and an autoregressive error term. The trend function is estimated by means of B-splines and then subtracted from the observations. The Yule-Walker estimator is obtained from the residual sequence. Asymptotic properties of this estimator are ...

The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper introduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained by the direct autoregressive approach, which optimizes the predictive ability of the AR model at foreca...

background: malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in nepal. the magnitude of malaria across the country is alarming and varies with location. therefore, the present study aimed to model malaria incidence rates during 1998 to 2009 in nepal. methods: data for the study were obtained from health management information system (hmis), ministry of public health. a negative binomial mode...

Some problems of point and interval prediction in a trend-renewal process (TRP) are considered. TRP’s, whose realizations depend on a renewal distribution as well as on a trend function, comprise the non-homogeneous Poisson and renewal processes and serve as useful reliability models for repairable systems. For these processes, some possible ideas and methods for constructing the predicted next...