When countries change most favored nation (MFN) tariffs, partners that trade on MFN terms experience plausibly exogenous tariff changes. Using this variation, we estimate the elasticity at short and long horizons with local projections. We find of tariff-exclusive flows is ?0.76 in run, approximately ?2 run. Our long-run estimates are smaller than typical literature, it takes 7 to10 years to co...

This paper argues that the existence of bank networks is important for banks ́ reaction to monetary policy. For the example of Germany, the VAR analysis shows that following a monetary contraction small banks access the interbank market indirectly through the head institutions of their respective network organisations. The interbank flows within these networks allow small banks to access funds t...

The Journal of Economic Literature codes classification system (JEL) published by the American Association (AEA) is de facto standard for research literature in economics. JEL used to classify articles, dissertations, books, book reviews, and working papers EconLit, a database maintained AEA. Over time, it has evolved extended with over 850 subclasses. This paper reviews history development sys...

A positive technology shock may lead to a rise or a fall in per capita hours, depending on how hours enter the empirical VAR model. We provide evidence that, independent of how hours enter the VAR, a positive technology shock leads to a weak response in nominal wage inflation, a modest decline in price inflation, and a modest rise in the real wage in the short-run and a permanent rise in the lo...

Recent time series methods are applied to the problem of forecasting New Zealand’s real GDP. Model selection is conducted within autoregressive (AR) and vector autoregressive (VAR) classes, allowing for evolution in the form of the models over time. The selections are performed using the Schwarz (1978) BIC and the Phillips-Ploberger (1996) PIC criteria. The forecasts generated by the data-deter...

Equilibrium business cycle models have typically less shocks than variables. As pointed out by Altug, 1989 and Sargent, 1989, if variables are measured with error, this characteristic implies that the model solution for measured variables has a factor structure. This paper compares estimation performance for the impulse response coefficients based on a VAR approximation to this class of models ...

This paper compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of five classes of time series models for market shares of the six most important Portuguese car market competitors over different horizons. As representative time series models I employ a random walk with drift (Naive), a univariate ARIMA, a near-VAR and a general BVAR. The out-of-sample forecasts are also compared against forecasts ge...

the main object of this paper is to find out the impact of economic and institutional factors on export of services in considering the example of oic countries. panel data method as an econometrics approach is used for estimating models. results show that variables such as gdp per capita, the real exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and information infrastructures have positive and signif...

this paper investigates the effects of globalization, (export+import)/gdp, tariffs, total factor productivity and per capita capital stock on industrial profitability. we employ the price-wage gap as a proxy for profitability. data used has been made of pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panel, a technique recently developed in dynamic panel data literature. our results show ...